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Newsbud
Published: 2017-05-03
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC-emgsEIfk
hi I am Peter Lee and this is news birds China watch this week plan trump if North Korea doesn't give up its nukes we screw China plus meet miles clock and the weirdest Donald Trump statue yet this was the week of signaling to and by North Korea first off DPRK army day on April twenty fifth passed without an I CBM or nuclear test signal one DPRK
is respecting US and Chinese red lines for now in case you have any doubt that these are the red lines here's how China's semi official global times concluded a recent editorial on North Korea if North Korea does not carry out at six nuclear test or launch intercontinental ballistic missiles then hope remains on the peninsula instead Kim jun pleasure himself with a massive live fire exercise at
the north Korean seacoast and North Korea fired another non ICBM missile which apparently failed shortly after launch I say apparently because maybe it was intentionally destroyed down range of the north Korean launch site so it wouldn't splash into international waters resentment at North Korea for shooting missiles into international waters unannounced is apparently real and maybe this was north Korea's way of getting it tested while limiting
the public relations damage U. S. North Korea messaging was laid out by rex to listen as he presided over a U. N. security council meeting attended by a murderers row of global heavy weights and welterweights tiller said himself China's foreign minister Juan II the UK foreign minister Boris Johnson the Republic of Korea as minister of foreign affairs union say and high level officials from Japan and
France two loosens key remark was this since nineteen ninety five the United States has provided over one point three billion dollars in aid to North Korea and we look forward to resuming our contributions once the DPRK begins to dismantle its nuclear weapons and missile technology programs the phrase you want to get your highlighter out for is begins to tell our sin is saying the U. S.
will resume aid to North Korea when it begins to dismantle its programs in other words the U. S. is not demanding unilateral denuclearization as a precondition for engagement so at the UN security council the United States put itself on record in front of the international community as not pursuing regime change or regime to stabilization and ready to open the goodie bag for North Korea even before
it gives up its nukes that's gonna make Kim Jong in feel okay the other U. S. signaling at the meeting was a message to China that it has to tighten economic pressure on the DPRK and push it into negotiations with the United States Chinese foreign minister Juan he wasn't having it in his statement he rejected the idea that all that's necessary is for China to blockade
North Korea and everything will work out great with good reason China considers U. S. hostility the root cause of north Korea's nuclear program and therefore it's up to the United States to make the big moves China one you took the position that the P. R. C. is going to stick to the letter of the UN sanctions stead of supplementing them with furthered national measures as to
listen was hoping one repeated his call for dual suspension DPRK suspense nuclear and missile tests US and ROK suspend military exercises as the measure needed to make the negotiations happen one needs bottom line China is not the key to the Korean situation the United States would beg to differ China as rex to listen pointed out at the UN security council accounts for about ninety percent of
north Korea's foreign trade thanks to intensive P. R. C. input during the United Nations sanction writing process the DPRK can't export seven point five million tons of coal which goes to China and provides a foreign exchange lifeline to the DPRK and the DPRK can import petroleum products that are not used in military aviation those come from China and provide an energy lifeline to the DPRK China
is an absolute bear on keeping north Korean sanctions limited to those explicitly defined by the UN security council with P. R. C. input the way China declared its red line on further nuclear tests was to publicize its intention to widen the scope of U. N. sanctions on petroleum products presumably enough to take the DPR case cars and trucks off the road maybe China thinks a significant
part of its North Korea trade is legal or defendable under the UN sanctions regime rex to listen apparently doesn't agree judging from his pointed remarks and some pointed glances he gave a wan E. United States also would much prefer countries and people in question to own up to their lapses and correct their behavior themselves but we will not hesitate to sanction third country entities and individuals
supporting the DPRK is illegal activities so the United States was not just sending a message of global resolve to North Korea at the UN security council the U. S. was also signaling to China that if China can't or won't deliver on North Korea the U. S. has enough buy in from Europe and Japan to go beyond UN sanctions to secondary sanctions on China check out my
current episode of the Asia brief how a U. S. fiasco in Macau burst north Korea's atomic bomb for the amazing story of how the George W. bush administration's first try at financial secondary sanctions directly contributed to the detonation of the first north Korean nuclear device financial or not a grinding struggle with the United States over secondary sanctions is probably not where the P. R. C. wants
to be right now and China really is not terribly happy with the DPRK nuclear program because if the DPRK tests its way to a rule bust miniaturized warhead the first place that warhead is going to be is on a medium range missile the target's Japan South Korea and China not the United States China and the rest of the region really doesn't want that so maybe the
P. R. C. will apply some more meaningful pressure on the DPRK to denuclearize I'm guardedly hopeful that with P. R. C. encouragement the US and DPRK might be able to negotiate something with the U. S. and P. R. C. red lines on I CBM and nuclear tests the north Korean string has pretty much run out Kim Julian might decide now's the time to cash in his
chips with the United States make a deal with the U. S. in other words and hope that China's backing will be enough I keep the United States from doing a Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi on Kim Jillian in other words renew its regime change shenanigans as soon as North Korea has abandoned its nuclear defenses which the United States will try to do in my opinion make
no mistake about it the U. S. will insist on a complete win total denuclearization north Korea's not going to be allowed to keep a couple nukes is a security blanket and any deal will be packaged with an intrusive verification regime that would give the U. S. a mechanism to battle in North Korea for ever given the dismal U. S. record in St dealing with small adversarial
regimes I think it may come down to China to act as a guarantor of any deal and provide the genuine financial and security assurances that the DPRK needs in order to make the deal work given the level of mistrust between North Korea and China and the P. R. C.'s historical resort to the crudest kind of arm twisting in its dealings with the DPRK it's a major
challenge for China a major test China's capacity insincerity to raise its game to do that leader of Asia thing in other words China might not be up to it more likely scenario I'm afraid is that things just muddle along complicated by some heightened rancor between the U. S. in China after the North Korea talks stall after all the key I CBM and nuclear test red lines
have been drawn in the only country that really wants to end north Korea's isolation is North Korea and without the space to continue its weapons development its opinion doesn't count for too much another country whose opinion doesn't seem to count for too much is South Korea the middle of all this careful jockeying at the UN Donald Trump announced South Korea should pay for Thad the theater
high altitude area defense system that China hates so much as he put it in an interview with Reuters I informed South Korea would be appropriate if they paid that's a billion dollar system that's phenomenal shoots missiles right out of the sky meanwhile the Pentagon was probably running around in circles yelling no no no no no if a building could do that because the whole strategy of
slipping tad into South Korea without a bruising political fight was to say it's to protect alliance military forces it's operated by the U. S. and we're paying for it well South Korea has to do is provide ballooned the last thing the United States wants to do is in trump speak put pad on the ROK political table just the opposite it is rushing fad into South Korea
under the radar if I may put it that way so will be operational before south Koreans vote in their presidential elections on may nine and possibly put a China friendly Thad skeptic moon J. him in office so national security adviser Heechee McMaster immediately popped up on fox news to state that the U. S. was still paying for fat don't worry about it might be too late