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Title: Peace: America’s Unacceptable Option in Asia
Published: 2017-03-08
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWGAJB4pTP0
Title: Peace: America’s Unacceptable Option in Asia
Published: 2017-03-08
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWGAJB4pTP0
1/48
our I am Peter Lee and this is news but China watch this week piece America's unacceptable option in Korea blood the ISIS promise for China and the world's ultimate W. M. first career the United States has publicly painfully grappling with its North Korea policy options war or negotiation there was a big story in The New York Times on Saturday about how the U. S. have tried2/48
to sabotage the north Korean missile program bottom line it hadn't worked so good the number I found interesting was the inference that Kim Julian's execution of several security officials was linked to a U. S. sabotage campaign I'm guessing Kim found out or suspected but the US and South Korea had developed human assets to introduce malware into the north Korean computer systems human assets a case buys3/48
AKB traders would be necessary since the north Korean systems are presumably airgap even more comprehensively than the Iranian ones that fell victim to stocks that long story short somebody stuck in a thumb drive some people got shot the piece also indicated that the U. S. might consider putting nuclear weapons back into South Korea in order to increase the credibility of the U. S. deterrent you might4/48
recall that president Obama flew some bombers over to South Korea from Guam last year that were characterized as nuclear capable reintroducing US tactical nukes into South Korea would not of itself kill the negotiation track if and it's a big if Kim jun doesn't retaliate with an I CBM test toward the United States other tests okay on Sunday the DPRK fired some medium range missiles into the5/48
ocean Japan way to protest a U. S. are okay joint military exercise and the U. S. responded with the usual rhetoric the New York times report covered a lot of bases it described the advances of the DPRK WMD programs it acknowledge the shortcomings of the sabotage project it also made rather jaw dropping the official admission that are three hundred billion dollars anti ballistic missile defense system6/48
doesn't really work and it outlined the currently consumable obstacles to the military option do you know clear eyes in North Korea by force might involve quite a few collateral consequences maybe things like South Korea devastated by conventional and WMD retaliation DPRK regime collapse China moving troops into North Korea to occupy a buffer zone the sorry scenario makes negotiation with the DPRK look pretty good and China7/48
is trying to keep the ball rolling for negotiations between the U. S. and the DPRK as the trump administration ways it's north Korean options there was some speculation that China's cut off of north Korean cold purchases P. R. C. concession negotiations over the famous trump she Jing ping telephone call you know I will say the words one China but you're gonna give me something on North8/48
Korea that seems pretty plausible to me Chinese would be happy to do it Cole sanctions push North Korea down the negotiation track China's top foreign affairs guy young yet sure is in Washington this week apparently as part of the Chinese effort to keep on the negotiation track spite the assassination angel number I think young pitcher might run into some headwinds unfortunately I'm not terribly optimistic about9/48
a Donald each the burger or truck goes to Pyongyang breakthrough much as I'd like to see it that's because biggest loser if peace breaks out on the Korean peninsula is the United States and the biggest winner China one reason China supports negotiations is because China doesn't want war and a failed state on its border but China also wants negotiations because piece roads the U. S. ROK10/48
military alliance if relations with the DPRK are normalized U. S. ROK military alliance loses a big part of its mission is it going to be able to have it there's that word again to China containment mission sorry no peace with North Korea will bring overwhelming Chinese diplomatic political and economic pressure on South Korea downgrade the less alliance Pearcy pressure on the ROK is already pretty intense11/48
see this from China's anti tad campaign tad the theater high altitude area defense anti missile battery was suppose to be one of those super smart U. S. gambits that make delicious pivot lemonade out of a big security limit north Korea's emergence as a credible nuclear power according to the traditional Pentagon cookbook tad was supposed to be a five way Asian winner stand up to North Korea12/48
buying South Korea more closely to the U. S. aggravate China demonstrate the indispensable in the United States in Asia and beef up the China containment military apparatus right on China's doorstep the kicker was that the supposedly anti DPRK missile battery came with a radar that could also be reconfigured to look two thousand kilometers into China and get integrated into the U. S. Pacific anti ballistic missile13/48
network China's prolonged and determined push back on tad has been overt tense and unrelenting last week Lottie one of south Korea's big conglomerates swap the piece of land with the south Korean military for the test site so local opposition could be side stepped structured it's fast tracked no the tab battery is supposed to be up in three to four months stead of by the end of14/48
the year this triggered a fresh round of Chinese retaliation Lally which has two point six billion dollars in China revenues it's found its web and pricking mortar retail operations in China under attack what it also operates duty free stores in South Korea and the piercing immediately cut back on the Chinese tour groups to Korea that provide those duty free stores seventy percent of their revenue body15/48
stock price promptly dropped twelve percent there was head scratching about why is China being so gosh darn mean don't they understand they're alienating South Korean opinion playing into the hands of the United States let me try to explain the P. R. C. under siege in ping is not afraid to appear on the ancient stage as mean China when it suits its purposes this is one of16/48
those times China's priority in Korea is rolled back US hard power not play soft power Patty cake with the ROK China is aggressively leveraging the fact that's existing economic ties to South Korea and the perception that south Korea's future inextricably linked to China not to the United States South Korea is vulnerable to Chinese pressure right now with the uncertainty and division surrounding the near total collapse17/48
of the pot presidency and the U. S. inability to restrain the DPRK weapons programs and the turning that pretty well known secret that the tab battery is close to useless as a meaningful defensive measure for South Korea China it's not just a matter of short term opportunities it's a matter of long term trends tendencies the P. R. C. tens you can force China's objections to tad18/48
are I think less related to the technical features of the system that to the fact that tad symbolizes south Korea's hope that it can play the role of the U. S. ally end at the same time Sistine its economic partnership China tad controversy has spilled over into the south Korean presidential campaign basically every candidate left or right hopes to thread the needle by going ahead with19/48
Todd Pronto while not creator in the Chinese relationship it's not working too well in a remarkably hawkish editorial in China's global times P. R. C. asserted that South Korea is quote acting willfully and deploying tattle on its soil betraying the cooperative logic in northeast Asia tying itself to the U. S. chariot and turning into an arrogant pawn of Washington in the latter's military containment against China20/48
other words the PRC is saying there's no reason for South Korea to proceed with tad or for the P. R. C. tolerate it's time for South Korea to recognize that it's destiny lies integration with China none in lining up militarily against charter the United States I think mean China is here to stay until south Korean politicians decide to degrade the U. S. alliance or at the21/48
very least stop upgrading it with things like tad China's desire to Finland dies South Korea puts an awkward spotlight on Pearcy promotion of negotiations between the U. S. and the DPRK China ups the pressure on South Korea concerning ten I think the U. S. will see the China element of the Korean equation more clearly China hawks focus policy makers attention and how peace with North Korea22/48
will weaken pro U. S. political forces in the ROK salaried south Korea's drift to the arms peace with the DPRK may therefore turned out to be the one unacceptable option United States hopefully we'll be able to muddle through instead but what if Kim Jong UN closes the door on muddling through by test firing ICBMs toward the United States how about that war option look so terrible23/48
the counter intuitive backstory of the war option it's the option the Pentagon's pretty comfortable with would make a god awful mess out of North Korea and maybe South Korea to but look at Afghanistan Iraq Libya Syria that's America's core competency starting fires thousands of miles from home putting the mount and restarting them with half assed political solutions and perpetual resort to US military power in addition24/48
to helping the US army feel at home and useful indispensable flatly North Korea would close the door on the peace option for once and for all Tamar status quo where US military power trumps Chinese economic power decisive factor insulin South Korea might not like it that way but in the middle of an anti WMD regional war fought under US command it's opinion maybe isn't going to25/48
count for too much so if Donald trump's political problems get severe enough that he wants a foreign wars a distraction well north Korea's teed up for when you get down to it piece is the enemy US influence in Asia kinda funny try to set what is scary speaking are scary isis vowed a Chinese bloodbath ISIS Alferov which apparently means ISIS of the Euphrates meaning ISIS in26/48
Iraq issued a half hour video which I have not seen in full it apparently was the usual slick creepy stuff of executions and exhortations China's angle was that the featured fighters were Uighurs children as well as adults and they promised to shed Chinese blood rivers as I explained in my January eleven China watch broadcast weaker fighters were probably imported into Syria courtesy of Turkish intelligence services27/48
when in Syria and Iraq they apparently fragmented into two competing factions one affiliated with the Turkestan independence party of al Qaeda and another with isis since this wasn't ISIS Uighur video it criticized the Turkestan independence party which is the most visible Uighur militant outfit now it looks like Syria and Iraq are winding down Elijah mine here who I consider the most credible observer of the region28/48
predicts isis will be done there this in a year so where are ISIS fighters to go one answer possibly is Libya another is North Africa local horribly authorities Yemen where ISIS is apparently trying to muscle in on al Qaeda's action but what about the isis Uighurs we don't speak Arabic who in some cases apparently have their wives and children with keep going to try and re29/48
integrate these groups into the weaker communities inside Turkey which are apparently not terribly happy and contented places to start with I tend to doubt it the video applies the ISIS Uighurs want to move back to Asia and it looks like ISIS facing near extinction in the Middle East is hoping that China with its ill treated Uighur Muslim minority and it's atheistic rulers who offer a productive30/48
new recruitment slogan battlefield success and political traction for ISIS as it competes with al Qaeda both for fighters and for patronage as a jihadi asset taking your heart to the Chinese and taking it to the P. R. C. are however two different things anti PRC ISIS militants suffer from two disadvantages first is that there are not a lot of good he bids around the P. R.31/48
C. Islamic insurgency in the most obvious feeling state refuge Afghanistan it's dominated by the Afghan Taliban China has been working with the Afghan Taliban for decades to keep a lid on weaker flight and weaker fighters undoubtedly one objective of the Afghanistan peace process back by choice to put the Afghan Taliban in the saddle in Kabul and in a better position stamp out isis and weaker threats32/48
the only isis group in Afghanistan highest course on province is apparently clinging to some district eastern Afghanistan whether weaker fighters from Iraq and Syria could get there that they could improve the operational effectiveness of I. S. course on enough to threaten Afghanistan the Afghan Taliban in the P. R. C. is open to question the other issue is mischievous state sponsorship it is the dirty secret of33/48
jihadism are usually flourishes not because it is self sufficient because a control on the clandestine support some state sponsored wait allegedly Salafist jihadis rely on support from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states China is the largest purchaser of oil from Saudi Arabia and has major economic ties to the UAE neither of the state's appeared interested sponsoring anti China militants your gods Turkey seems to have been34/48
badly burned by it Syrian venture and hopefully is out of the week of business for now that leaves India which I think still lacks the reach to effectively support anti China Islamic militants side Afghanistan or other central Asian states the bottom line for the P. R. C. a worrisome threat but the possibility of some deadly attacks but ISIS is probably not capable of sustaining an insurgency35/48
in job as I stated in my last China watch episode China is turning Xinjiang into one of the world's premier surveillance these isis will have its hands full trying to operate insight PRC Regina the main utility of the ISIS video may turn out to be supporting Pearcy efforts to heighten its threat narrative machine job further sideline Uighur liberation narrative loved by the western media governments justified36/48
ever harsher methods inside China increased demands counterterrorism cooperation from sneakers the regional aspect of the ISIS threat is perhaps the most important here there are other states in Asia that are less high functioning security states that the PRC places like Thailand so a terrorist bombing in twenty fifteen allegedly executed by weaker refugees there's Indonesia whose Islamic movement actually harbored some weaker militants that escaped from China37/48
there's the Philippines where the United States is warning slash threatening that to Turkey's downgrade of the U. S. Philippine security relationship what's at risk of ISIS terrorism on Mindanao perhaps she'd the leisure Thailand Indonesia Malaysia and the Philippines all states with Muslim insurgencies ISIS presence large Chinese the Oscars major economic links with the people's Republic of China rivers of Chinese blood may flow in other words38/48
but they may flow side finally on a less than later the most dangerous weapon of mass destruction in the world is not the atomic bomb VX nerve agent this yeah in China it becomes a persistent reservoir for bird flu viruses used to be while follow like ducks carried the viruses and it was hard to transmit to domestic fowl like chickens now the flu viruses mutated and39/48
establish itself securely in the chip and poppy it happened in China because it got a lot of ducks and a lot of chickens and a lot of chances for a breakthrough in transmission is currently the case and it's hard to transmit bird flu viruses from chickens humans China has a lot of chickens and a lot of humans you can see where this is headed last week40/48
World Health Organization look at a nasty strain of bird flu each seven and nine that have emerged in China and made quite a few people sick at the virus figured out how to make the chicken to human jump over officially the WHL in CDC or nervous about age seven and nine mutations because that strain kills about forty percent of the people who get sick enough to41/48
enter a hospital you're even more nervous about each five and one which is the quiet for a few years but kills about sixty percent of the people went up in the hospital if these bird flu start to spread more easily from chickens to people a lot more people who hang around chickens are going to get sick and maybe die fortunately that doesn't seem to have happened42/48
yet goodish news this week yes more people were getting bird flu but no it wasn't because chicken to human transmission and approved it was just that a lot more chickens have bird flu and so more people were catching it you are probably thinking I don't spend a lot of time around live Chinese poultry so it's not too likely I'll catch bird flew from the chicken but43/48
what you should be thinking is how likely is it bird flu figure out how to make the human to human job you know transmission by sneezing snot whatnot so could spread like wildfire through the human population around the globe instead of just relying on chickens to get around good question scary answer scientists have already identified a small number mutations maybe less than half a dozen that44/48
will be needed to help each five and one spread efficiently through human human contact science is wonderful in twenty twelve researchers went ahead and confirm their results by genetically engineering a modified virus that in tests successfully transmitted to a population of laboratory mammals but it was proved that age five and one could be genetically engineered and weaponized the scientific community said wait a minute and publication45/48
and research were suspended for here while tight bio hazard controls were implemented trouble is regardless of what the researchers were doing or not doing in the laboratory the bird flu strains have been mutating and Jack Purcell find continually in the real world since they were identified in the nineteen nineties and now they are mutating in diversified in an enormous Chinese chicken population in close proximity to46/48
an enormous Chinese human population so every time bird flu develops a new wrinkle WHL and CDC anxiously scoots over for a look see if this is the mutation I will explode into a global pandemic kills millions of people last week the good news was no the new mutation was focused on killing chickens not jumping to humans are jumping from human to human sooner or later the47/48
virus try to enjoy your Sunday chicken dinner that's all for this week thanks for watching if you're watching this on you too good news but dot com we will find exclusive content available only to the news but community I'm Peter really good news but I don't watch for just a small subscription fee you can become a member of the news but community and help keep this