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Title: Is China Getting a North Korea Bullseye on its Back?
Published: 2017-03-22
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsovBVlHAVQ
Title: Is China Getting a North Korea Bullseye on its Back?
Published: 2017-03-22
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsovBVlHAVQ
1/42
I am Peter Lee and this is news but China watch this week China gets a bulls eye on its back for North Korea T. rex roars and maybe snores in Asia aircraft carrier madness in the South China Sea and Gators hopefully by the time this episode of China watch ears on March twenty second a nuclear war will not have broken out over the Korean peninsula we2/42
don't want rex to listen to lose any sleep rex to listen sometimes known as T. rex sometimes known as America's still secretary of state visited Japan South Korea and China then much jockey over the north Korean nuclear issue trip was marked by dinner gate diplomatic awkwardness over the fact that to listen did not break bread with his south Korean counterparts the Korean Herald citing sold officials3/42
stated the U. S. side opted not to have a meal together citing the secretary's tell us and fired back stating they never invited us for dinner then at the last minute they realize of optically wasn't playing very well in public for them so they put out a statement that we didn't have dinner because I was tired some context to listen had apparently had a two and4/42
a half hour meeting and dinner with Japan's foreign minister Kishida but only a one hour meeting and no dinner with the south Korean foreign minister it is quite possible as to elicit stated dinner was never on the agenda and are okay diplomats were embarrassed by the seemingly perfunctory nature of Tillotson's visit to South Korea compared to Japan and try to make up for it at the5/42
last minute maybe tiller sin was not interested in stroking the caretaker south Korean government which is just holding things together between the impeachment of president pack and the elections in may and when anxious or okay officials tried at the last minute to achieve meeting class dinner parity with Japan Tolosa told them to F. off he might have been tark there's that to listen manage to have6/42
a busy newsworthy visit dishing out the tough talk to North Korea in Japan and South Korea and getting his picture taken at the thirty eighth parallel by a north Korean soldier to listen also stuck it to the Obama administration characterizing north Korean diplomacy to date is a failure the policy of strategic patience of course is the signature Obama strategy for North Korea this sort of rhetoric7/42
imply something big is in the works because I doubt to listen is advertising twenty years of failed approaches so he can carry on with the twenty first year a failed approaches trump once a win on North Korea to gain some political traction for his flailing administration and stick it to both the Obama administration and the phantom Hillary Clinton administration that at least in the minds of8/42
never trump partisans is the only team capable of running the United States so I think to listen was in Asia trying to nudge the Korean issue toward a resolution stating that this time the United States is really really serious about either denuclearize in North Korea by force or negotiating some kind deal of course if the US really wants to attack North Korea now's the time to9/42
do it with everybody assuming nothing's going to happen until she Jim ping visits the United States and South Korea Alexa new president but let's be optimistic and assume that the trumpet ministrations talking tough to encourage Kim Jong interprets for the deal carrots and sticks you know an indication that the US is looking at some kind of deal with North Korea was two listens hint that the10/42
conceivable future for South Korea and Japan involves developing their own nuclear deterrence which would be a very strong possibility of some sort of deal is struck that is not based on North Korea preemptively and immediately giving up its own nuclear deterrent still listen put it so we do think it's important that everyone in the region as a clear understanding that circumstances could evolve to the point11/42
that for mutual deterrence reasons we might have to consider that to listen gamely made his we come in peace pitch to Kim Jong UN but as a U. S. crest help lead lead that's U. S. murdering Morgan Daffy after he gave up his WMD programs pretty much makes voluntary denuclearization by the DPRK as a first step to impossible add to that the U. S. and ROK12/42
conducted North Korea invasion exercise with a quarter million troops last week moved a seal six assassination team to South Korea denied by the department of defense parted aircraft carrier son and stations weapon capable drones in the ROK this didn't exactly feed the Kim Jong il has nothing to worry about to give up his nukes well nobody really wants a war on the Korean peninsula but North13/42
Korea is not going to denuclearize anytime soon so what could negotiations actually accomplish potentially the most interesting and encouraging sign the team trump higher ambitions for Korea than just muddling along was to listens use of one word that word was we had until this incident twice in a statement before meeting Chinese foreign minister while me in Beijing on March eighteenth to listen said where or is14/42
he quoted the U. S. and China are always searching for win win solutions important statement because it's not true during the Obama Clinton years win win was exactly what the United States didn't curse when when is the favorite P. R. C. diplomatic formulation it is the opposite of zero sum relationship in which one side wins and the other side loses win cancels out loss equals zero15/42
win win everybody's a winner the P. R. C. idea of win win diplomacy was that the US would respect China's core interests and in return China would help out with things like Iran North Korea climate change what trouble is as a practical matter most of China's core interests impinge on the values and interests of the United States and its friends and allies in the region places16/42
like the South China Sea where the pure sees jostling with the core U. S. allied Philippines and an important potential partner Vietnam the Clinton state department and the Obama administration rejected the P. R. C. proposition there wasn't going to be any win win or street and they did it in a way that was to me at least a classic piece of overreach by challenging the idea17/42
of the China have legitimate security and strategic interests even in Asia that the US should respect Hillary Clinton declared that this would be America's Pacific century but China's and you seem to declare that the US have more of a right to be in Asia that China because the US was the glue that held together the principal international order that was the basis of peace and prosperity18/42
in the region it was China's job according to the U. S. to show that it deserved a place in the principle of international order by trying to meet the high international standards but the United States has committed itself to upholding in that force for trade human rights internet freedom freedom of navigation in Seoul we can make deals with China we kicked China in the ass and19/42
demanded they improve their performance needless to say China failed at every turn so China under xi Jinping just give up more accurately it embarked on a policy of defying the United States challenging its claim that the United States was the central and effective protector of the principal international order a key event Chinese defiance of the law of the sea judgment getting the P. R. C. nine20/42
dash line in the South China Sea not only did China refused to accept as US backed international norm it's successfully weaned away the key claimant the Philippines from the US position to be honest the US position was becoming harder and harder to sustain with the growth in Chinese economic and military power and its global assertiveness barring a collapse by China sooner or later that day would21/42
come Chinese power and influence in Asia surpassed that of states trump that day is coming sooner rather than later in fact according to the state department the pivot to Asia is over abandoning the transpacific partnership switching to bilateral trade deals trump not to keep proper out from under the argument that America's core mission is upholding the principle of international order foreign policy ala trump looks a22/42
lot more like the US advancing its national interest flexibly and opportunistic China policy for trump my turn out to be a series of deals and China under siege in paying which shares with truck a common love for deals and they hatred for all things Hillary Clinton is happy to move on to what's called actional diplomacy or as the Chinese and now rex to listen put it23/42
within where that not so faint screaming sound you hear that's Obama Clinton picketers Oakley appalled until arson made his win win state and realizing that every signature trump motto is on the table allies human rights free trade all the things that may picketers feel they have the moral high ground against China Eli rap early exit visor to Joe Biden who keeps it that flag flying told24/42
The Washington Post Tauruses rhetoric pretends U. S. declined an accommodation which will only encourage Chinese assertiveness entries Thompson region about the future US commitment leadership Asia or to listen to not only ended the pivot but atop the Chinese win win formula for his trip to Asia is a pretty major tell that the trumpet ministration one stick yet yes did a win on North Korea and wants25/42
to entice the PRC to help make it happen as to what the deal might entail well need I say it again everything is on the table maybe even tat especially since the car okay it's flat on its back politically and there's a good chance the new president may turn out to be a peacenik who doesn't like Ted anyway potential scenario pull tab out of the ROK26/42
in return for Chinese self interest during a deal from Kim joy here but tad back in the deal go sour you can see how this might go bigger picture a key sticking point is everyone realizes is that North Korea will not surrender its nuclear deterrent as a precondition or initial step for any deal that the negotiation track is to go ahead some finessing is in order27/42
and that I think China maybe North Korea will agree to some face saving deal where promises to give up its new somewhere down the road and the P. R. C. is guarantor of that deal if North Korea reneges state of Kim Jong il over whom the US has virtually zero leverage getting a consequence she'd been paying gets a consequence instead make steel making sense especially intro28/42
planned to get China which has enormous exposure to US retaliation on the hook for North Korea deal China hawks in the U. S. have been talking about threatening to ban Chinese banks from the U. S. financial system part of the two Koreas strategy for decades maybe now's the time as the Donald Trump Twitter machine put it China has been taking massive amounts of money and wealth29/42
from the U. S. in totally one sided trade that would help with North Korea nice yes with North Korea is possible maybe not in a way Obama and Clinton easier hence might expect or like speaking of places to retaliate against China everybody's favorite flash point the South China Sea last week I said it looks like to Turkey's problems might escalate to the point he'll be forced30/42
from office and a pro U. S. regime takes over the P. R. C. might just off its plans for island building on the Scarborough shoal well this week is not a bit harder for territory the opposition threatened him with impeach and to Turkey's own people threatened his own vice president with impeachment for criticizing his drug war to the letter in the middle of all this a31/42
local Chinese official was quoted in a Chinese newspaper to the effect of the P. R. C. was climbing preparatory work for building and environmental monitoring station Scarborough shoal this caused intense excitement and drawing up red and purple circles by the think tank water showing no this would inevitably lead to the conversion of the South China Sea into well China's southern sea well it seems many could32/42
suggest it's about what to do about it as I pointed out last week international war can't do much to prevent China from building on a territorial feature occupies as soon as writers publicized reported was scrubbed from the Chinese website calculated warning or move I don't know built or unbuilt China intends to stay on the Scarborough shoal for good the United States determined to make China pay33/42
for somehow the Pentagon for its part is going to do what's best transform the South China Sea into an international showcase for aircraft carriers over the next few years Carl Vinson concluded its patrols in the South China Sea and just arrived in South Korea unofficially so far in may of this year Japan will set its aircraft carrier you sumo into the South China Sea and onward34/42
to naval exercises with the U. S. in the Indian Ocean also in may France what what did we send a mistral amphibious assault vessel to the Pacific carrying Japanese and US personnel on British helicopters and quote sending a message to China business insider got the message albeit somewhat garbled form telling its readers that France was going to be flexing its muscles in the South China Sea35/42
France is actually going to be flexing its muscles around Tinian island which is in the Marianas good fifteen hundred miles away from the self check see and the UK has promised to sell its new aircraft carrier the Queen Elizabeth through the South China Sea twenty twenty after they finished building it the United States eleventh aircraft carrier the Gerald Ford lender service sometime this year twelve carrier36/42
John F. Kennedy well under servicing twenty twenty if all goes well it is a U. S. law in America must have at least eleven aircraft carriers I did not know that the lead someplace to sail fortunately there's enough room in the South China Sea how much this will change Chinese behavior remains to be seen if someone and aggressively pro US administration returns to the Philippines it37/42
needs the help of the world aircraft carriers to feast on China I think the confrontation might come not at Scarborough shoal at the knee mischief mischief reef you see was originally an underwater feature dot in elevation above water at high tide so it falls under the jurisdiction of the law of the sea and according to the arbitration commission falls inside the exclusive economic zone of the38/42
Philippines I believe mischief reef is the only Chinese man made island that is a not a territorial future and D. lies inside the Philippine easy according to the law of the sea therefore developing are exploiting mischief reef in anyway is the sole right to the Philippines China's man made island is simply and legal structure inside the Philippine easy Philippians can either demand China they came up39/42
or pay rent for or the Philippines might try to ethics charter in which case it might be a good idea to have half a dozen friendly aircraft carriers around I think we'll be hearing more about mischief reef wants to tear takes out of office maybe even before finally moving beyond the South China Sea and thinking big any naval attack against the Chinese mainland should probably be40/42
launched between October and March because that's Chinese alligator hibernation see China strategic alligator population is managed by the unlikely young C. alligator reserve insurance on city every fall they moved thirteen thousand alligators into hibernation really Gator spend the cold months basically sitting around now things have warmed up enough so that alligators can be relocated to the outdoor ponds it fed muscles and snails to get frisky41/42
feisty and improve their hunting skills here's a look watch your fingers Pat that's all for this week thanks for watching if you're watching this on you to go to news but dot com we'll find exclusive content available only to the news but committed I am Peter Lee news but China watch for just a small subscription fee you can become a member of the news but to42/42
me and help keep this website running your subscription will provide you with full community access to exclusive content excluding videos and articles from news but it's team of experts in as well as a members only monthly newsletter for news was founders and sign up today for full access use but dot com
