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TEDx Talks
Published: 2017-01-17
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XrbzlR9QmI
good morning everybody we are living during the most extraordinary time ever in human history and it's during our lifetime during our lifetime that we're about to see the transformation of the human race truly something that blows my mind every time I think about it and the conversation I keep having with my colleagues my friends my investors my commute in Silicon Valley goes something like this people
have no idea how fast the world is changing and when I give you a sense of that because it fills me with awe and wish extraordinary sense of responsibility for how we guided what we do with it this is the computational power of our planet and over the last forty plus years from the nineteen eighties to two thousand we were in a period of a call
deceptive gross where the growth was slow it was beginning to change us but we did try to feel it yet and then we enter a period of dropped of growth where it's exploding on to the world and you saw part of the implications from what Jeff dean was saying and the implications of that explosive disruptive growth is that were plummeting the cost of bandwidth millions of
times cheaper computational costs are dropping to the floor the cost of memory is dropping to the floor and global connectivity is exploding on this planet now there are two implications wanna talk about during my presentation that are critically important the first is that of abundance I had a chance to write a book called abundance the future is bad you think and here are the facts the
per capita income for every nation on this planet has increased three hundred percent our lifespan over the last hundred years has increased two and a half times the cost of food is dropped thirteen fold energies dropped thirty fold not top of that what we're seeing is the following literacy on this planet over the last hundred years going twelve percent to eighty eight percent across the globe
the cost of transportation going a hundred times cheaper the cost communications going a thousand times cheaper and the cost of knowledge and information giving Google billions of times cheaper for every single person for a child in moon by having access to knowledge information as good as the present I'd states had twenty or thirty years ago a child the poorest child when buying a smart phone having
access to the same knowledge information it Larry page has on Google so besides creating this abundance and D. monetizing the cost of living we're also seeing is we're about to see the transformation of the human race when I say that we're gonna change over the next few decades how we raise our children how we govern ourselves how we communicate person to person how we employ yourselves
commerce entertainment and were about to become a multi planetary species and here's the most amazing time it's happening during our lifetime tapping you during your lifetime it's happening in the next thirty years so don't blink so what's driving all this this is Gordon Moore one of the co founders of Intel few this part and his partner started in nineteen fifty eight and by nineteen sixty five
Gordon Moore had noticed something on the chips that they were producing it and tell the integrated circuit city noticed that the number of transistors per piece of silicon per dollar was roughly doubling every twelve to eighteen months and in nineteen sixty five he publishes this paper he goes you know this is likely to continue it's been known as Moore's law and it's continued for fifty years
and I wanna show you what that looks like that's the first integrated circuit nineteen fifty eight here we see two transistors about a half inch feature length on each let's fast forward to the first commercial product in nineteen seventy one the Intel four thousand four twenty three hundred transition but a dollar each now let's fast forward forty five years to Intel's I. seven processor here we
see a processor that is three hundred and thirty billion times faster when you want to understand why the world is getting faster why Renee able to do the things that we do it right here it's that transformation three earn thirty billion times faster over the course of forty five years let me give you another visualization of what this looks like right in nineteen fifty six this
was a hard drive five megabytes hundred twenty thousand dollars if you happen to have your cargo airplane you could move it from office to office that we probably notice when this happened two thousand five here's a hundred twenty eight megabytes for ninety nine Bucks pretty extraordinary transformation but did we notice this went over the course of nine years and when two hundred twenty gigabytes right on
schedule and Moore's law for ninety nine Bucks a thousand times better on investor in adviser to now technology company that's focused on doing this a billion times better again right we're talking about all of Google's data centers in a sugar cube and if you look at this this is from my partner recurrence while he's a co founder with myself it singular university this is the computational
growth plotted on a large scale over the last hundred ten years what we see here on this curve in five paradigms the last of which is more as long what ray because this is the law that's already returns that were using faster computers to build faster computers build faster computers and it's not slowing down we don't see World War one or World War two we don't
see boom times are recessions right and so if it's likely to continue what you get is something pretty interesting see in two thousand twenty three seven years from now the average computer we go and buy from Best Buy if they're still around is now calculating attends the sixteen cycles per second which I neurophysiology will tell you that's the rate which your brain does calculations so what
happened you can buy a human brain for a thousand Bucks well it doesn't slow down right twenty five years later now a thousand Bucks buys the computational power of the entire human race now your kids homework it's really easy and what the inside I want to share with you is that these faster cheaper computers are going on and on and on are sort of the foundational
you know growth medium upon which all these other technologies are growing so as computers are getting thousands and billions of times faster so are these other technologies in these technologies a pewter sensors networks a I robotics three D. printing a or V. are synthetic biology are literally recombining and giving us unexpected convergent consequences you can be an expert one area but action Justin where these come
together and what they do with new business models are transforming our planet right here right now so the first of these networks right this is the world's population growth over the last teen years we just crossed seven billion mark but if you look at internet penetration in two thousand ten read one point eight billion people connected on planet earth to the internet today it's about two
point nine by twenty twenty to twenty five let's call it you know eight years from now were at a low estimate going to have five billion people connected which means we're adding three billion new mines on to the global economy that never been accounted for before but that's the low estimate why because this guy at Facebook with drones and satellites wants to connect every single person
on planet my friends in Google with Google looms and satellites and drones were to connect every single person the planet Paul Jacobson Richard Branson Greg Weiler have just raised a billion dollars deployed one whether six or forty eight satellite constellation in the next six years to connect every single person the planet and last week you on was announced it was SpaceX a four thousand satellite constellation
to connect every single person the planets I want you to imagine in the next six to eight years not five billion but eight billion connected people not coming online like you and I did write it on AOL in ninety six hundred baud from him coming online with a megabit connection or better with access to the world's information we are about to see a massive explosion innovation
like we have not seen yet innovation coming from parts of the world that we would have never thought of five billion in you fingers five billion you innovators five billion U. craters problem solvers entrepreneurs coming online within this next decade it's not just people things right last year we had fifteen billion connected devices by twenty twenty my friends at Cisco talk about the internet of things
the low estimate is fifty billion connected devices and by the way each one of these devices have a dozen sensors on them we're talking about heading towards a world of a trillion sensors where everything is being seen and measured and known fast forward ten years later now we've got five hundred billion connected devices a hundred trillion sensors sensors everywhere in my crew drones on the fabrics
inside your body right letting us know anything you want anytime you want anywhere we want and %HESITATION those sensors on your body in in your body we're about to see an explosion in how we think and we connect I communicate this is Google's contact lens that's picking up glucose in your tears which Carly to close in your blood but that's the first step of sort of
connecting to your neural system there are amazing companies right now like colonel friend whined Brian Johnson one of our benefactors at the X. prize foundation when my investors has launched a hundred million dollars to be able to connect your brain a cloud right my friend ray curse while your brain is a collection of a hundred billion neurons with a hundred trillion synaptic connections in it you
you and me me now the last time we had an upgrade of human brain was two million years ago when we sat are large for prefrontal cortex are sort of uploaded gave us language in art in the ability to think him and thinking similes not all of these different areas but as we start to connect the brain a cloud we're about to see for the first
time ever an explosion in human intelligence Brian talks about it's not a I versus humans H. I. most important asset we can ever have its increase of human intelligence I love this copy of time magazine plugging in the brain into the cloud but that's that twenty forty five is not a right estimate from the company's I'm seeing ray's estimate is by the early to mid twenties
thirties so imagine when when you need additional memory capacity or a thousand times more intelligent you consort like split up like your phone does on the cloud today but by the way the early twenties thirties like how I'd twenty years from now to watch the world could be looking like we heard about a I whatever version you want from hal to Syria to Google amount to
IBM Watson I prefer Jarvis I think we're all gonna have a version of Jarvis will be talking to all be listening you give permission to your Jarvis your personal software shell to read your emails watch what you're eating listen to your blood chemistries sore listener conversations because it's giving you all the information need just in time and these a eyes are also helping to solve the
world's grandest challenges on the global stage last year us with a head of the Watson team from IBM on an X. prize than a mere one of the core denies yours here runs and we're challenging teams to work with a our eyes to solve the world's biggest problems we get frightened about grand challenges because we see them from far away but guess what the tools and
technologies we have to solve these grand challenges is exploding onto the scene that gives me the greatest hope for the future a I is our most important tool ever to solve our grand challenges and besides all of these technologies were now beginning to understand the software code of the human species right look at this curve that white line is Moore's law it's the increasing power the
read inducing costs of computation the Green Line is how fast we've gone sequencing DNA a hundred million dollars to sequence the human genome and twin in two thousand by Craig venter nine months of time today it's down to a thousand Bucks in two hours it's not just reading DNA would go right DNA we get you crate novel life forms you can design a life form a
computer print out a string of DNA put into blank celibate boot up for life and it's not just writing DNA crisper cast nine unless you bury your head in the sand you probably heard about crisper cast nine right the ability to edit our own genomes to have a disease and say let's edit out away about word for your genome click taste repair when the implications that
I'm focused on is extending the healthy human lifespan through genomics and stem cell science my two companies human longevity insularity our mission is to add thirty to fourty healthy years onto your life to give you the aesthetics the cognition and the mobility at sixty at a hundred that you had six and if you get that we're heading towards a world of an indefinite lifespan these are
crazy ideas but they're coming because the tools we have to enable them are accelerating faster than you could possibly know second implication I want to close with is the transformation of human species we are heading to what I call the formation of a meta intelligence I haven't talked about this publicly but I want to share it and I look at historical analog to see where we're
going based on where we have been as life on this planet three point five billion years ago the first life form was a prokaryote it was a single bag of cytoplasm with a string of DNA the simplest life we knew and over the course of a billion years that prokaryotic life form developed into a complex life form called a eukaryote and what it did was incorporated
into it technology the mitochondria and deposit reticulum gold apparatus that allowed it to process information energy more efficiently so that transformation from a simple life form to a technology enabled life form is what I believe we are doing right now as we as humans are beginning to incorporate technology into our brains into our bodies were undergoing that seem transformation in the first step the second step
that life took was going from eukaryotic wife two multicellular life collaboration and we are massively collaborating as we go from small tribes not connected tribes connected by the internet and soon connected by the cloud were when I think I can understand in the in the purest form of empathy what you see what you hear what you feel the third is the emergence of technology of intelligence
this is a moral at the early stages of a human embryo sixteen cells that grows into what we are today a collection of ten trillion human cells in my body or your body an emergence of intelligence and what we're about to do is to connect not one but eight billion minds connecting the fashion like never before I call on that intelligence and I think as we
connect and become a new species a new creation of eight billion connected mines we're gonna look out into the solar system into the universe and see many others I'm reminded all close on the notion that four hundred million years ago lungfish crawled out of the oceans onto land hasn't happened since today we as a species are crawling out of the birth place of humanity this fragile
planet to the moon to Mars the asteroids a million years from now whatever we become we're gonna look back at these next few decades as the moment in time that we become an interplanetary species I believe we have during our lifetime the next thirty years the mission to inspire and to diet transformation of human species on and off the earth niner pleasure thank you
