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Title: ICBM Madness in North Korea and China’s Mission Impossible
Published: 2017-04-19
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWyjkMRos_0
Title: ICBM Madness in North Korea and China’s Mission Impossible
Published: 2017-04-19
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWyjkMRos_0
1/38
I'm Peter early and this is news birds China watch this week I CBM badness in North Korea and China as mission impossible war it's just a shot away if North Korea test fires an ICBM the United States will attack North Korea that's the message trump administration has been sending to Kim Jong il with the help China first let's take a look at this bad boy not2/38
Kim Jong in the north Korean I CBM or I CBM esque thing North Korea paraded in Pyongyang this weekend the western press wants you to call Franken missile April fifteen was the day of the sun in the DPRK the one hundred and fifty anniversary of the birth of north Korea's founding leader and father and grandfather Kim il song it's the DPRK is main holiday and the3/38
occasion for a gigantic parade through Kim il sung square in downtown Pyongyang there were some large missile things paraded occasion create excitement among military analysts because they apparently showed that North Korea has some big solid fueled and more bile missiles big means an I CBM and intercontinental ballistic missile which is exciting to us because the continent in question is our continent North America solid fuel means4/38
can be launched quickly without a lot of prep time for the U. S. maybe to detect fueling activity like we used to be able to do with older liquid fueled rockets so we could maybe launch a preemptive strike more bile means even if we found the ones that doesn't mean we know where they are now because they move around makes the preemptive strike even harder I5/38
tend to doubt the north Korean government actually drives over real I CBM even without a warhead is basically I check cantik bomb filled with tons of rocket propellant through a square crowded with hundreds of thousands of people pastor reviewing stand packed with most of the party state military leadership and on live TV so maybe what we were seeing was a mock up we won't know how6/38
for North Korea has actually gotten with its development work until they launch one and they might never do that because it looks like the trumpet ministration has drawn a real redline on ICBMs the U. S. position on north Korea's I CBM program is summarized by a famous Donald Trump tweet from January North Korea just stated but it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear7/38
weapon capable of reaching parts of the U. S. it won't happen this is not just trump blow Harding the north Korean I CBM program is a major concern for U. S. strategists now it is apparently a formal redline for U. S. security policy British defense officials signal to the London times that the U. S. position is pre emptive U. S. strike in case of an I8/38
CBM launch an interesting element of U. S. messaging is the continuing assertion that the United States and China are on the same page when it comes to North Korea exhibit a of course is the trump Twitter machine why when I call China currency manipulator when they are working with us on the north Korean problem we will see what happens and I have great confidence that China9/38
will properly deal with North Korea if they are unable to do so the US with its allies will you ask me exhibit P. that this is a U. S. policy and not just trump fantasy is radio free Europe's report on statements by national security adviser ichi McMaster in Kabul this weekend according to our effete McMaster said the consensus including China is that this problem is coming10/38
to a head so it's time for us to undertake all actions we can short of a military option to try to resolve this peacefully it makes perfect sense that team she is telling team Kim don't be an idiot don't test that I CBM and I think Kim Julian is taking you S. in Chinese messaging on the I CBM seriously especially after the serious strike especially since11/38
the ability to strike South Korea and Japan including US military bases in South Korea and Japan with the short and medium range missiles already gives Kim plenty of street as to the rest of the messaging it gets a little complicated on April fourteenth the Associated Press ran a long awaited backgrounder from the trump administration describing what it has planned for North Korea according to the article12/38
what trump has planned is not much they call it maximum pressure in engagement I call it blah blah blah the article concluded with this rather puzzling statement a US military official who requested anonymity to discuss planning said the U. S. doesn't intend to use military force against North Korea in response to either a nuclear test or a missile launch so you're with me no use of13/38
military force what the actual elf especially when you look at what's actually going on in addition to rhetoric and demonstration projects like the cruise missile attack on Syria and the Moab drop on Afghanistan the United States redirected the carrier task force led by the USS Carl Vinson plant operations in Australia to proceed to Korean waters Vincent itself carries somewhere around fifty fighter planes that can be14/38
armed with a few hundred air to surface missiles stories and cruiser in the strike group can launch two hundred guided missiles at once Japan's prime minister Shinzo Ave has reportedly approved plans for several Japanese destroyers and their missiles to join the Vincent strike group if south Korea's Yonhap news agency is to be believed two more aircraft carriers to Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz will also join15/38
the Vinson and on April twelfth the US airforce conducted and publicized what's called an elephant walk its main Japanese base at could Dana where it's got about three dozen fighter plane an elephant walk is a display of military power were full squadrons are arrayed in tight formation on the runway sort of like him Julian's parade except it's not showing off what might be missile canisters filled16/38
with sand planes are armed with real bombs and missiles and it's meant to demonstrate their resolve incapacity to launch a massive high tempo attack right away somebody told somebody told the London times that trumps military team was confident it could hit everything it wanted to in North Korea in a first strike quote they think they got the capabilities to target things and utterly destroy them they17/38
are confident they know where everything is and can targeted the efficiently certainly looks like military forces on the menu maybe in the pretty near future the U. S. probably isn't interested in keeping the Vinson carrier strike group floating off Korea indefinitely the messaging in the London times was drugs team wants North Korea resolved in a month but at the same time as all this trump administration18/38
gives the backgrounder to the Associated Press it basically tells North Korea you want to set off a nuke test the missile go ahead we're not gonna do anything and that's what North Korea did on the day after the big parade DPRK apparently conducted failed test of a submarine missile and beyond a terse statement secretary of defense Maddox the US said almost nothing did I absolutely nothing19/38
it looks like as long as North Korea doesn't test an ICBM it's pretty much in the clear and maybe that's what the north Koreans squid was actually meant and for them whom the simplest explanation for the no attack talk is that the United States was reassuring South Korea which is threatened with massive north Korean retaliation in the case of a U. S. strike vice president Mike20/38
pence visited Seoul on April seventeenth and maybe trump also thought enough of his vice president not to send them into a war zone maybe more to the point the south Korean government is demanding a voice in any U. S. decision to attack North Korea and I think the US is saying well okay except for that I CBM thing that directly threatens the United States another element21/38
I expect China I expect trumpets promised Yujin paying but the U. S. would escalate things on the north Korean peninsula for the time being in order to give China time to work its magic with North Korea unless of course for that I CBM thing redline you now the interesting question is assuming North Korea back saw from I CBM development then Mike pence made with some more22/38
tough talk when he visited the Korean demilitarized zone on April seventeenth according to a peak the era of strategic patience is over and the US and its allies will achieve its objectives through peaceable means war ultimately by whatever means are necessary protect South Korea and stabilize the region that's going to be tough because going back to that EP backgrounder the U. S. objectives are quote north23/38
Korea's denuclearization it cannot lead to an arms control agreement or reduction of the north's atomic arsenal that would imply American acceptance over North Korea our it's very hard to believe North Korea will voluntarily to nuclear eyes not after what we did too Qaddafi in case you've forgotten what we did to Qaddafi we murdered him after he gave up his weapons of mass destruction or as Hillary24/38
Clinton put it as we came we saw him he died never say never but I'm not optimistic North Korea is going to give up its nukes that makes me wonder trump has partnered with xi Jinping on North Korea so China conserve as the fall guy in other words take the blame if denuclearization talks with North Korea stall or fail Chinese diplomats have announced a strategy for25/38
resolving tensions it doesn't sound that great it's called suspension for suspension DPRK suspense tests and the US and the ROK suspend military exercises well as an analyst put it in the global times report no the proposal would work if both the United States and the DPRK were willing to do it so the success of the Chinese approach relies on both North Korea and the U. S.26/38
doing what China wants them to do Hearn I'm guessing China's state councilor Yang gesture the guy reportedly behind this brainwave didn't read that chapter in the art of the deal titled leverage lack of as a matter of fact judging by the tone of an equal sixteenth up ahead in China's global times seems as if China has already prepared itself for North Korea proceeding with a much27/38
anticipated nuclear test on top of the failed missile test so much for suspension the bigger problem for China is that North Korea hate speech it deals with China not because it wants to but because it has with good reason North Korea believes that its security and its future depend upon direct and positive engagement with the United States well I think North Korea wants a deal like28/38
Burma got normalization of US relations without regime change in return for turning away from China I think Kim Jong in had already signaled his interest in the U. S. track when he executed his uncle who handled engagement with China in twenty thirteen but the Obama administration simply wasn't interested nukes in the way in my opinion therefore China's on mission impossible it's supposed to use an impossible29/38
strategy to get an impossible concession from North Korea a government that doesn't even want to deal with China in the first place the United States which is engaged clandestinely with North Korea for decades presumably knows this maybe China's being set up to fail so the trump administration can check the boxes for give peace a chance diplomacy and China prove your real superpower and China can't complain30/38
I gave them a shot and North Korea didn't to nuclear eyes don't blame me blame China if China doesn't deliver I could see the U. S. and its allies promoting the narrative that China lacks the will and capacity to act as a true Asian superpower can anyone say paper tiger it will be hard for China to deliver great things on North Korea maybe all that will31/38
come out of this is genuine mutually accepted redlines on I CBM development and testing and mechanisms for continual U. S. north Korean and Gage mint it's better than nothing to me anyway as you can tell from this discussion north Korea's a complicated situation with a lot of backstory like a lot of things in Asia so I'm introducing Asia brief available exclusively to news but community members32/38
were all be talking about the vital context and background one important Asian issues look for it at news but dot com Italy this year a lot of foreigners like me wanted to watch the big north Korean parade to see what new missiles Kim Julian was going to display well we got to watch the parade but only via a periscope feed from Washington post reporter and a33/38
five field since she was holding up her cell phone in front of a live stream on her laptop in Tokyo it's illegal to broadcast these events in South Korea and the rest of the world you to pick cut off the north Korean news agencies feed according to the BBC you to probably couldn't show the feed because the north Korean news agency might profit off the ads34/38
which would violate sanctions this is B. S. and the BBC should know better you tube has been pulling content related to North Korea put up by third parties as well as the Korean news agency for months possibly in retaliation for North Korea officially banning YouTube inside North Korea as of April first twenty sixteen is you to protecting us from fake news or is it protecting its35/38
real corporate interests you decide really cool which owns you too will decide for us so for this week thanks for watching if you're watching this on you to go to news but dot com where you'll find exclusive content available only to the news but community and the opportunity to interact with me on the China watch show pages see you there I'm Peterlee news but it is36/38
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