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Title: Globalization Blues: Trump, China, and the Women’s March on Washington
Published: 2017-01-25
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfj7fENKako
Title: Globalization Blues: Trump, China, and the Women’s March on Washington
Published: 2017-01-25
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfj7fENKako
1/47
hi I am Peter Lee and this is news buds China watch this week trump globalization Davis and crisis first if you've been following the furor over Donald Trump possibly being a Russian agent of influence you probably ask yourself what does this have to do with the Westphalian system of international relations excellent question sixteen forty eight after the thirty years war devastated Europe all the powers major2/47
and minor there a hundred ninety four and all got together in the duchy of Westphalia to negotiate a peace today west really is just a state within the German Republic the role Westphalia played in hosting the treaty of negotiations in sixteen forty eight is largely forgotten instead Westphalia is renowned for its delicious hams applied by acorn fat pigs run with the unique salted herb mixture and3/47
carefully cured with the bone in for at least six months first things first sixteen forty eight treaty is based on two important principles which oven door as foundations for western diplomacy to this day first it was agreed that the attempt to rollback the Protestant Reformation to military conquest was a mistake instead it was accepted each state have the right to fix its own religious policies internally4/47
this served as a basis for the principle of non interference in the internal matters of sovereign states second as a practical matter was accepted that the surest path to stability through a balance of power is shifting kaleidoscope of alliances as opposed to absolutely Germany by one power this Westphalian system as it's known has worked pretty well Henry Kissinger loves the Westphalian system classic Westphalian foreign policy5/47
move was tilting toward China in order to create a new balance of power the Soviet Union globalism challenges the Westphalian idea that everything will be hunky dory of sovereign states are allowed to do their own thing as long as they don't mess with other sovereign states for globalism or global principles of issues take priority over the traditional sovereign states right to order its own affairs stuff6/47
like human rights transnational terrorism global warming nuclear proliferation international financial stability president Obama not much of a Westphalia very much a globalist one who built his ideas around the desirability of U. S. hegemony American exceptionalism as it's called state of balance of power ditto Hillary Clinton during the Obama years countries like Russia and China were regarded as enemies of the principal international order but the United7/47
States it committed itself to defining protecting and promoting because Russia and China were floating vital international norms in pursuit of their narrow national interests trouble is the globalist agenda has proved almost impossible to implement in what still largely a Westphalian world jealously sovereign states the United States own position is global caretaker is hopelessly compromised by its own opportunistic pursuit of its own national interest US attempts8/47
to channel the spirit of the principle of international order selectively interprets it in places like Libya and Syria have been a disaster Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have revealed the double standards at the heart of the American promotion of democracy human rights universal values the US therefore appears deficient in the credibility and capacity to completely organized world according to global district supports what about Donald Trump what's9/47
his take on Westphalia you may have noticed that two of trump's most outrageous pieces of rhetorical hoo ha beauty ation of global warming is a hoax I'd go ahead and enjoy a nuclear war deny the existence of two key post Westphalian crises climate change and nuclear proliferation that are invoked to justify the globalist orientation maybe not on accident now consider trumps desire to tilt toward Russia10/47
trump a Russian public could be but it could also be that he's interested in the balance of power strategy by teaming up with Russia to contain China very tough move for globalist one day's work for Westphalia support of this theory here's a quote from a story with a foreign policy Republican Thomas Graham that appeared on N. P. R.'s website on January eighteenth says it's not in11/47
our strategic interest the Russian economy is excessively weakened and Russia is driven toward China Graham here Graham reflects the thinking of Henry Kissinger said during his last visit to Moscow in February that Russians should be perceived as an essential element of any new global equilibrium not primarily as a threat to the United States Graham said Kissinger was pointing to the fact that Russia can help balance12/47
Chinese power Central Asia and the Far East the guy who said that Thomas Graham is managing director of Kissinger associates he was senior director for Russia at the National Security Council under George W. bush he's also you mix together with Dana Rohrabacher as the potential US ambassador to Russia under trump administration what a trunk Westphalian strategy might entail would be backing off from sanctions over Ukraine13/47
as a sticking point and US Russian relations and basically leaving Europe to its own devices in deterring local Russian adventurism before dismissing this piece of real politic out of hand consider that Russia which is derided by the globalist crowd is a dysfunctional dictatorship but can't make anything and is hopelessly reliant on its dwindling resource base I eat a gas station with nukes has a G. N.14/47
P. about that of Italy's roughly two trillion the job of deterring Russia and Europe was handed over to Germany well Germany has a GDP of four trillion twice as much and that's even before we bring in the polls the Swedes the Baltic states let alone the French and the British and if we're worried about Europe's nuclear shortcomings well Germany or Poland might be happier homes with15/47
the sixty to ninety nuclear devices NATO now keeps it in Cyrillic now that Turkey has become a kwazii ally of Russia Syria America and Russia holding hands would drive a policy of Russia with U. S. support actively wooing stamp like Kazakhstan close relations with the PRC and turning Central Asia and Siberia into potential venues for U. S. rather than Chinese investment lot of attractive assigning scenarios16/47
there don't have to be a traitor to find them interesting but if you're a globalist with signs the highest priority to quarantining Russia and China from the principal international order until they behave the right way got a problem maybe trunks just trying to hide his treason behind a Westphalian kick or maybe globalists are using treason as a Cape to disguise the nature of their opposition to17/47
a coherent and achievable Westphalian foreign policy strategy that the objects to as trump moves away from globalism the P. R. C. is attempting to assume the mantle superpower champion of globalism she didn't think the president of the P. R. C. went to the World Economic Forum a devious with the explicit intention of presenting China as the world's best hope for globalism this was treated with a18/47
good amount of derision in the western financial press which I tend share currently the people's Republic of China is struggling to claim recognition as a market economy within the World Trade Organization regime maybe China really is an international a market economy and it isn't subsidizing industries and exports directly through preferential loans and indirectly through fiddling with the exchange rate am playing regulatory favors trouble is western19/47
corporations aren't seeing it that way recently the American chamber of commerce in China polled its membership and found that twenty five percent over one hundred corporations were planning to pull out that might be a fairly unquenchable number when it comes to specific circumstances is a Chinese are US factors problems of execution markets products or what not but the key number in the poll for me was20/47
that seventy seven percent of respondents felt quote less welcome end quote for comparison half of respondents felt less welcome the year before looks like a bad trend getting worse aside from the issue of openness China isn't quite the unstoppable engine of global growth anymore growth is slowing to six point four percent officially maybe half that much in reality at the Chinese economy slows and interest rates21/47
are going up money bags are pulling cash out of the Chinese economy and investigate overseas the weaknesses of China on the capital account appear most unambiguously in the drop in its foreign exchange holdings through purchases of our beat to sustain the exchange rate too outbound foreign direct investment NBA capital flight add to that Chinese banks draining therefore X. reserves I compensate overseas depositors who no longer22/47
want to hold a depreciating your and a slowing economy means slowing inbound foreign direct investment to refill the coffers thanks to these various factors P. R. C. forex reserves have dropped from close to four trillion U. S. dollars to close to three trillion U. S. dollars three trillion U. S. dollars is being advertised as a key threshold to sustain investor confidence on January seventh peoples bank23/47
of China stated P. R. C. four X. reserves were three point zero one trillion wouldn't be surprised Titan capital controls RB depreciation or both are in the forecast and there's a depth pile the P. R. C. flooded the country with debt to keep the economic and political wheels turning now it's rolling over that dead in increasing instead of retiring it now we can add to all24/47
that the possibility that the trump administration may start a trade war with the P. R. C. N. put additional pressure on profits of Chinese corporations and on the balance sheets of the banks that are propping them up George Soros the leading theoreticians and at least in the case of the Hillary Clinton campaign financier of the globalist because was in Davos to predicted doom of the world25/47
now that it turned away from globalism and to truck according to him P. R. C. debt levels are now at unsustainable levels maybe three hundred to three hundred fifty per GDP finally talk about China crash George Soros have predicted from last year maybe maybe not the P. R. C. I'm thinking does not only employ US style macro economic tools to manage a crisis of the sort26/47
in the United States everybody trudges along in denial except Goldman Sachs until a crisis occurs and then Goldman Sachs makes a few billion dollars in the P. R. C. bar my reading Goldman Sachs role is played by the piercing regulators T. Gigli inflate and deflate bubbles I try to let punters take some profits and reduce exposure of investors if and when the final crunch comes if27/47
you're into bit cord you know what I mean the Chinese government in other words is trying to get out of its economic fix not with a few bold public measures but a multitude of incremental behind the scenes moves call it life by a thousand cuts so that's what she didn't ping is trying to do and Dave Aussies not trying to save the world by slotting China28/47
into the globalist leader slot vacated by the United States is not even trying to save China at least not at Davis he just wants another item in this rescue package she wants to sell one narrative that Europe should have a conscious policy of neutralizing the impact of the trunk China trade war the very least not piling on together was trying better if the Europeans oppose a29/47
trump tariff war as an affront to free trade and the health of the global economy and best opening up the European demand investment speak it enough to help keep the P. R. C. afloat if and when the Chinese financial crisis becomes more cute but she didn't ping firmly in the Westphalian cap in other words no a trip down memory lane via the women's March the immense30/47
women's March is not only in the United States but around the world reflected frustration that women's political aspirations symbolized of not exemplified by Hillary Clinton had been denied in the United States perhaps unfairly by under credentials misogynist horror show Donald J. trump as far as I can tell there were no significant matching demonstrations in China the CCP looking at the massive crowds of anti government protesters31/47
filling the streets of Washington DC and other cities was probably patting itself on the back for its foresight in pre emptively jumping on Chinese feminists we're trying to work up a social movement inside the P. R. C. in the last couple years the Chinese feminists were apparently trying to locate and claim safe spaces social workers are seen in the P. R. C. conducting actions keyed on32/47
innocuous issues like menstrual leap more women's toilets domestic violence and sexual harassment however CCP decided there would be no safe spaces and harass the Chinese feminists who had any kind of public profile judicial and security measures feminist five as they were known despite receiving expressions of concern from the US state department the EU and UN ambassador Samantha power have been effectively quarantined in their home provinces33/47
one of the five junk sure I did recently received publicity at least in the western press calling out Donald Trump sexism in the letter she sent him in December the existence of an energized women's political block is something that political professionals in the United States are now going to have to devote energy irix blunting or co opting as their party affiliations and strategies dictate beer season34/47
already done that blunting I mean of course the Chinese government is intensely and pro actively suspicious of any social movement be it political religious human rights labor or feminist it has the potential to put feet on the street in enormous numbers in the area of women's rights amazingly the CCP can probably think Hillary Clinton for learning it to the threat over twenty years ago the unity35/47
principle for this year's women's March on Washington human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights was extracted from Hillary Clinton's famous address to the nineteen ninety five UN women's conference which was held amid great tension and controversy in Beijing in nineteen ninety five speech was a genuine political and social milestone both for the attendees and Chinese feminists and a cause of genuine political36/47
long for people's Republic of China I climbed to broadcast the speech the nineteen ninety five speech was continually touted for Hillary Clinton's campaign is evidence of her long standing in pivotal role as a champion of human rights and feminism and speaking truth to power and stomping on China however as is often the case with the Clintons there is another side for one thing in nineteen ninety37/47
five the Clinton administration was reeling from devastating defeats in the nineteen ninety four mid terms Hillary Clinton's role as an effective administration insider and advocate had been gutted by collapse of her signature healthcare reform initiative political rehabilitation was a priority Ford affairs the past second the Washington consensus was that US sanctions on the P. R. C. for the children my massacre had run their course it38/47
was time to get back to business for president Bill Clinton would attack George HW bush during his presidential campaign for coddling China some awkward back feeling was required most awkward with the renewal of most favored nation duty treatment for the P. R. C. P. R. C. MFN renewal have been made conditional certifying China's progress in human rights in may nineteen ninety four president Clinton bit the39/47
bullet and specifically de linked Chinese human rights from trade the notorious rationalization for this piece of political expediency was that enhanced economic links between China and the United States what's a path China's political liberalization that particular theory is in the dog house right now the Clinton administration remain committed to the principle of advancing human rights and it needed some political cover from its critics in Congress40/47
both on the Republican and democratic sites Hillary Clinton's trip to Beijing offered the prospect of providing a new kind of affirmation of human rights they could exploit the P. R. C. eagerness to burnish its human rights credentials as a member of the international community in good standing by hosting a splashy UN conference on women's rights as the conference opened the P. R. C. had already been41/47
forced to advertise its subordination of support for women's rights state interests by blocking visas or D. asper Tibetan groups that hope to attend the NGO conference held in parallel with the official state actor conference Clinton was addressing to get their objections certain P. R. C. policies into bed on record inside China the government also harassed nine Tibetan activists who'd been able to make it to Beijing42/47
on tourist visas and I try to be heard at the conference Hillary Clinton handled the situation quite astutely by using the rhetoric of you end centric universal human rights rather than the human rights policies of the U. S. government and she used fest support of human rights to a certain linkage tween women's rights and political liberalization in a way the P. R. C. undoubtedly found objectionable43/47
ironically since irony is never far from the Clintons either a few years after this ringing denunciation of the exploitation of women president Clinton embarked on his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky from the Chinese point of view unofficial as well as official take away from Mrs Clinton's speech was even if the U. S. government temporarily modified its China human rights policies for reasons of expediency criticism and pressure44/47
could continue in the name of the superior claims of universal human rights it was a signal in other words the United States it's not accepting the principle but a sovereign state had absolute right to order its internal affairs and Hillary Clinton's particular framing of the issue alerted the CCP that if feminists were able to get the women's rights nose into the political tent a whole democracy45/47
camel it's likely follow so count the massive turnout of the women's March on Washington this validation of CCP anxieties and a reason why the CCP is relieved at the defeat of Hillary Clinton even if Donald Trump is promising to build his foreign policy on a foundation of overt hostility to the PRC whether she can ping and Donald Trump could achieve a modus vivendi probably the key46/47
question internationally anyway truck era that's all for this week thanks for watching if you're watching this on YouTube good news but dot com where you will find exclusive content available only to the news but community I am Peter Lee news let's China watch for just a small subscription fee you can become a member of the news but community and help keep this website running your subscription