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Title: China: Beware of Donny Big Hands!
Published: 2017-04-12
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gatIrszdBe4
Title: China: Beware of Donny Big Hands!
Published: 2017-04-12
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gatIrszdBe4
1/45
bar I am Peter Lee and this is news but China watch this week China beware of Donnie big hands Ludden embarrassment at Mar a Lago and last days of the Dalai Lama I don't think she jumping enjoyed his trip to the United States too much it lacked the superpowers consorting as equals with mutual respect fired that is so important to P. R. C. nationalist steam and2/45
political Steve I was most struck that there was no she didn't ping Donald Trump joint press conference at the end you know with the podium the flags translators delivering the platitudes of the day the eager journals jumping up and down like eager puppies you know what Japan's prime minister Shinzo epic got instead to close the visit trump delivered up a serving of his usual word salad3/45
at the meeting table and she'd according to the official White House transcript said words in Chinese when it was she's turned to make a statement he looked rather flexed and put out and mumbled something that was quite difficult to hear clearly a translation of she's rather empty remarks was apparently piped into the head sets of the U. S. participants and we're not even deemed worthy of4/45
broadcasting or recording in the White House transcript and of course no decent video to impress the folks back home in China trump's pretty media savvy and he also knows well the inner torment of a world leader yearning for public praise and approval I suspect the visit was designed to deliver a message to she didn't ping he's still on probation and doesn't get the full superpower superhero5/45
treatment until the P. R. C. has done something the United States really really likes maybe about North Korea trump did accept an invite to visit China this year and in his dark moments maybe she didn't ping it's thinking about a replay of this famous thank you all very much fall it will of course the big news and another affirmation of she's second banana status with trump6/45
blasting Syria while she was oblivious Lee sucking down his chocolate sorbet in retrospect the whole summit had the vibe for she is going over to a new neighbors house for a play date that doesn't work out and the other kid just wanders off to spend time with his Xbox collateral damage of the strike was not limited to bruising she jin ping sense of self importance war7/45
for that matter the seven Syrian civilians including several children reportedly killed by stray US cruise missiles thousands of words of carefully constructed pre meeting and post meeting analysis by the world's experts ascended into irrelevance I too experienced this what's left is speculation I expect trump communicated his expectations to xi Jinping to do something more on North Korea maybe without promising anything in return the tone of8/45
the visit was I think China has to prove itself but we don't know team trump hasn't been leaking background in much on this issue perhaps because they want to milk the serious struck P. R. benefits as long as they care before returning to the messy north Korean problem helping fill the news vacuum the New York times provided its interpretation of the Chinese response to the serious9/45
strike by describing Xinhua Deming trumps movers the act of a weakened politician who needed to flex his muscles and overcome accusations that he was pro Russia the times article seemed to be keying off a Chinese language piece in Xinhua but doesn't quite say we can politician who needed to flex his muscles it does say administration making a show of power to relieve domestic pressure of Russia10/45
gate no well maybe we were reading two different articles the overall tone of the piece I read could be characterized as trump obtains domestic political running room shifts US Middle East and Russia policy with strike on Syria pretty insightful article in my opinion China is perfectly happy to exploit hostility to trump in order to push the P. R. C. as this excessive to the United States11/45
as leader of the global order however I don't think she's in pinks take away from the Syrian attack was as some never trump analyst splendid look at this book other volatile insecure weak mobility it's more like sky just shot off fifty nine cruise missiles without warning unilaterally with no congressional approval or direct legal authorities that people are loving it something that attracts China's attention and not12/45
just because of the sneak attack on North Korea haggle it's a wake up call for China to a major distinction between the Obama and trump administrations I believe is this the Obama administration was led and staffed by a lot of sharp lawyers who made sure whatever they did was legal even if it was shady trump administration is lead and staffed by a lot of shady people13/45
who hire sharp lawyers after they've done something shady and hope it turns out legal the firm of Obama and partners LLC was I think excessively invested in faith in the law and its own superior action so believe it could restrain and contain China with a web of laws under president Obama the U. S. spent a lot of effort organizing multi national opposition to what it teamed14/45
China's defiance of the legal and moral norms of the principled international order this is known as law fair pinnacle of law figure was reached by the Obama administration encouraging the Philippines to invoke arbitration under the U. N. convention of the law of the sea to challenge China's nine dash line the nine dash line was and is a robber hollow Chinese claim that the South China Sea15/45
is not an international body of water subject law of this stead a sovereign tear China the Philippines won the case and in the process supposed to limits of law fair first of all China openly and furiously defied the ruling second China's defiance highlighted the fact that the law of the sea has no enforcement third there were enough of loopholes in the law but China could continue16/45
its island building without effective censure fourth the new Philippine administration of Rodrigo to Turkey was less interested in perfecting its maritime legal rights then it was in using the judgment struck financial benefits from China the Obama administration was hamstrung in its response because the U. S. had staked its policy and credibility on protecting perfecting and upholding those nice lawyerly things like freedom of navigation and the17/45
law of the sea things that would need to trash it wanted to do coercive unilateral and maybe even violent and illegal things to punish China for flouting the arbitral award so we got a lot of freedom of navigation operations by the U. S. navy near China's man made islands basically sailing through or inside China's maritime claims while clearing in an angry meaningful manner the freedom of18/45
navigation operations are one hundred percent legal and also seem to highlight American impotence this makes US China hawks very sad I believe since they regard China as a paper tiger that will fold in any direct confrontation with the United States they're not so secret hope is that China will overreact to US provocation experience a humiliating military defeat CCP loses its legitimacy a political crisis leads to19/45
P. R. C. regime collapse America wins chai comes lose the end the serious strike I think sent a message to the PRC that the trump administration will pay more attention to geo political and political advantage and the China hawks and less to legal niceties in confronting China in other words less law fair and more warfare if attention to the legalities of American power are given shorter20/45
shrift there's a lot of ways to make things unpleasant for China in the South China Sea let me name a few U. S. declaring it will enforce the moratorium on any new Chinese island building U. S. demands Pearcy dismantle defensive military facilities on it's man made islands U. S. supports Philippine blockade in recovery of Scarborough shoal U. S. protects foreign oil exploration vessels in Vietnam's exclusive21/45
economic zones from Chinese harassment US blocks Chinese oil rig trying to enter South China Sea U. S. supports Philippine recovery of mischief reef I came up with the scenarios in less than a minute I am sure the US Naval War College can come up with a lot more and already has China is over extended and pretty vulnerable in the South China Sea trump decides he doesn't22/45
care about respecting law of the sea freedom of navigation asi am agreements the feeling in interest of allies fears of military conflict and what not he can give China a lot to think about so I think she's in pain is going to order an update of Chinese strategy and tactics and plans for economic and strategic retaliation in case the U. S. tries to humiliate the P.23/45
R. C. in the South China Sea on the way home she consoled himself for his rough handling it Mar a Lago by making a surprise stop over in Alaska on the way back to China to meet with the governor bill Walker the meeting had been requested by China a month ago and was keyed to mutual interest in exporting Alaskan liquefied natural gas to China it might24/45
also represent China's desire to establish itself as an arctic player with important strategic and economic interests there it will also be interesting to see if she in addition to Alaska looks at the disposition of never trump forces in America's richest and most populous states like California and New York and look for some more local level allies and leverage in the United States for his dealings with25/45
trump you know something like trump sells arms to China's renegade province of Taiwan she sells high speed rail to America's renegade state of California good times according to governor Walker's spokesperson she described Alaska as a mythical almost mystical place for the Chinese Leka Shangri la and the Chinese know Shangri la of course because they invaded next up China and India scrap over Tibet on April eighth26/45
his Holiness the Dalai Lama visited the town called tabla in India up by the border with China the Chinese summoned the Indian them back to object the Indian government said the visit was a political and an internal matter which are not the same thing it's all politics Selena Indian China hawks use the visits to dial long to go to China publicize the continued existence of the27/45
Sino Indian border dispute re awakened unhappy memories of India's humiliation in the nineteen six to war with China and reinforced the narrative of the P. R. C. threat India's territorial integrity and security Don Juan is the site of an important Tibetan Buddhist monastery it's the place with the Dalai Lama first entered India when he fled China in nineteen fifty nine it is also unambiguously a key28/45
part of traditional Tibet geographically and culturally and politically that was administered by Lhasa but seized by India in nineteen fifty one just like the P. R. C. sees the rest of Tibet something that the P. R. C. points out to India the Chinese keep demanding that India return to how long to the P. R. C. which simply is never going to happen India for its part29/45
brings Tibetan religious leaders to dial long to declare that it's part of India to anger China and for my part I point out that the Indian assertion that China seeded doll on to British India in nineteen fourteen is a myth and the fabrication sorry the Tibetans don't know much saying this I think reportedly the Dalai Lama stated several years ago that Don Juan was Tibetan not30/45
Indian but if we did that has fallen by the wayside today both Tibetan religious leaders from the dollar llama on down in the Tibetan government in exile which is hosted by India publicly endorse the Indian position in recent years Indian governments have brought the Dalai Lama and the Karmapa another Tibetan Buddhist leader to dial want to conduct religious exercises and at the same time a firm31/45
that dial on his India stick it into China's I these visits also offer the Indian government the opportunity to assert that doll once essential identity is multi ethnic and Indian and it is not just a Tibetan Buddhist enclave on this visit children lining the Dalai Lama's route were reportedly given Indian flag to wave the exterior of the monastery was festooned with Buddhist Tibetan and Indian flags32/45
as far as I can tell though Indian flags were not visible inside the monastery grounds where the Dalai Lama spoke the Dalai Lama visiting Taiwan was on one level another statement of India's willingness to play the Tibet card as a strategic gambit against China amid growing friction between India and China and India's frustration China is making some pretty significant economic and diplomatic inroads into South Asia33/45
as I discussed in last video the traditional calculus in P. R. C. Indian relations used to be China didn't mess with Kashmir and India didn't mess with Tibet but consensus is breaking down partly because of strategic competition but also because China is proceeding with the construction of the China Pakistan economic corridor through Gilgit Baltistan which forms part of disputed Kashmir I suspect the P. R. C.34/45
keeps da'an alive today mainly as a talking point along the lines of well India has a grievance over Gilgit Baltistan well China's governed Riemann's over don Wong the tit for tat angle is reinforced by the fact that China is working on a road and rail link through Gilgit Baltistan India has just announced well it's going to build a railroad to Tom why major complicating factor in35/45
Sino Indian sparring over Tibet is what happens after the current dollar Lama passes on the fourteenth Dalai Lama is a widely revered world celebrity who symbolizes resistance to the P. R. C.'s rule over Tibet he is also getting old and the PRC has cynically slow walk any engagement with the Tibetan diaspora in the expectation that after the Dalai Lama is gone prestige cohesion and political strength36/45
the Tibetan community will inevitably decline but all along his health I imagine is something of a state secret he's mentally and verbally acute in English and presumably in Tibetan and he cranked out a two hour teaching for an audience of fifty thousand dollars however physically he's less than vigorous it's perhaps understandable to anyway he would be around forever at least in this bottle is and reporters37/45
asked him several questions about exception prevalent assumption is that the Dalai Lama will identify successor while he's still alive in order to preempt Chinese meddling if this is the case the successor will be a simpatico emanation rather than a full bore reincarnation the betting is that the Dalai Lama will reach outside his own looked a lineage to designate the current Karmapa the young leader of the38/45
karma Kagyu lineage as his successor whoever the next style I llama is he or she well not exercise temporal authority over the Tibetan lay community the Dalai Lama has already surrendered this role to the Tibetan government in exile within the Tibetan Buddhist establishment there will perhaps be hidden or passive resistance to the authority of a new Dollarama from the notoriously independent traditionally combative lineages and monasteries39/45
so looks like the next Dalai Lama will be more of a brand ambassador for Tibetan Buddhist culture in dialogue with the Dalai Lama said it would be up to all Tibetan Buddhists meaning not just ethnic Tibetans inside Tibet but also members of the diaspora and also Mongolian Tibetan Buddhist of whom there are considerable number to decide whether the social institution of the Dalai Lama was relevant40/45
and would survive in fact half of Mongolians identify their religion is Tibetan Buddhist that's about one point five million people there are only one hundred and fifty thousand Tibetans in India Bhutan and napalm the Dalai Lama is keen to develop Mongolia as a bastion of Tibetan Buddhism and has apparently pondered the advantages of cultivating the Mongolian church and perhaps even a Mongolian successor that would not41/45
be the first choice of the ethnic Tibetan diaspora or the Indian government I imagine in any event the prospects for the succession involve conflict controversy Chinese and war Indian meddling and diminished prestige and authority for whoever assumes the position of dollar llama we may not see the likes of the fourteenth Dalai Lama finally the Chinese official news agency Xinhua released a beautiful three minute video touting42/45
the transformational character of the one built one road infrastructure project it illustrates China's ambitions to use the OB O. R. as evidence that future of Eurasia and belong to China not the United States who was obviously long in preparation but held for release to insert images of Donald Trump and she's in pain at Mara Laga to check the China is a pure power box the video43/45
is worth watching in full but here I just wanna show one sequence I take this as a pledge that China is prepared to assist in the post conflict reconstruction of Syria a trillion dollar job that no other power has the interest or capacity to take on message China is prepared to clear up the west's even Donald Trump threatens to make that mass even bigger that's all44/45
for this week thanks for watching if you're watching this on YouTube got a news but dot com we'll find exclusive content available only to the news but community and the opportunity to interact with me on the China wok show pages see in there I've Peterlee news but I don't watch WNED for just a small subscription fee you can become a member of the news but community