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Title: Asia Enters the Post Obama Era
Published: 2017-01-11
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLUfdozga-w
Title: Asia Enters the Post Obama Era
Published: 2017-01-11
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLUfdozga-w
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god I am Peter Lee and this is news leads China watch this is going to be an exciting year we got the people's Republic of China trying to cope with slowing growth and mounting financial problems you got the United States affirming its competition with China but in denial about its own eroding relative military and diplomatic engine Asia and we've got trump and debate and this union2/50
in the U. S. foreign policy military style just as some key these are exciting times hopefully the excitement one kill us this week I'm gonna talk focus on Uighur Islamic militancy it's a major security issue in China's Xinjiang autonomous region but is some groups in Asia as far west as Syria and Turkey and deep into Afghanistan and Pakistan in my opinion the first meaningful exercising Pearcy3/50
power projection we will be in asked tak not the South China Sea rush's success to date in Syria has created the perception but if you go in big with the right circumstances and the right partners Islamic militancy can not only be contained it can be rolled back the people's Republic of China as issues with militants who threaten its rule over the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region were4/50
on full display last week both within sheen job and as far as four thousand kilometers away within the P. R. C. borders an attack on the Chinese Communist Party compound in a remote town in Xinjiang using explosives in the hives led to the deaths of three attackers into victims an update on Wednesdays terrorist attack in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region the ministry of public security5/50
says two people are killed before all the three attackers were shot dead another three people were injured the attackers enter the yard of the mall you'd county committee of the CPC in a vehicle on Wednesday afternoon the attacked workers with knives and detonated an explosive device previous reports said the attack was carried out by four people causing one innocent person's death these attacks Kirker with some6/50
frequency despite severe Pearcy security policies that mimic perhaps deliberately Israeli tactics on the west bank western governments and media balk at calling these attacks by Uighurs inside the P. R. C. is terrorism which infuriates the P. R. C. however on the matter of Uighur militancy outside of the P. R. C. western and Pearcey attitudes seem to be converging I'm going to be talking about leaders in7/50
Syria and for %HESITATION the interests of simplicity I'm going to ignore the various rebranding of el Qaida deliver current calling it a loser friends and so on and I'm just going to talk about al Qaeda and the cooperation between al Qaeda in Syria and Uighurs were organized under the Turkestan Islamic party in what was big news in Syria and for China coalition airpower when other words8/50
the United States attacked Melkite a conference in northern Syria on January second two carloads of leaders received the special attention of a drone strike and among the dead was reportedly one Abu Omar el Turkestan me those are his timing means from Turkestan Turkistan is the name given to the Xinjiang region by those who reject the P. R. C.'s rule and Abu Omar al Turki Stanley was9/50
a weaker fighting in Syria with al Qaeda according to Thomas jostling at long war journal Abu Omar was not just a leader of the Turkestan Islamic party which promotes armed resistance to the P. R. C. emission jock he was also a key figure in al Qaeda in Syria as a whole Jocelyn speculates that Abu Omar was brokering and enhanced operational alliance between Uighur Arab fighters one10/50
in which he himself who play a leadership role the United States found out about beating and attacked global times the quasi official P. R. C. mouthpiece was pretty happy with the death of Abu Omar and presented it Furthermore estimates that the US NPRC are finally in step on the issue of stamping out Uighur militancy instead of condoning it as the P. R. C. believes the United11/50
States has been doing in recent years indeed the United States is sometimes shown a soft spot for Uighur militants most conspicuously by designating the Uighur detainees at Guantanamo as non enemy combatants that is to say not the enemies of the United States but doctor they had declared themselves enemies of China and that did it inadvertently swept up in the Afghanistan dragnet the United States except the12/50
disposition and deemed the other Uighur detainees at Guantanamo unreturnable to the P. R. C. because of the possibility that they would face the death penalty there since they could not be repatriated to China and China also blocked the release to any other third country ironically the Guantanamo Uighurs rusticated at Guantanamo for over a decade enough only in recent years been turned over to remote foreign countries13/50
the U. S. harbors the leader of the invalid Lee nonviolent leader World Congress would be a kid here in the United States and radio free Asia devotes itself to providing a platform for self expression and grievance for Uighurs inside Xinjiang China can probably thank Turkey's president ergon for elevating Uighur militants to pan Asian security threat that even the United States now take seriously president Aragon has14/50
presented Turkey as a protector of the Uighurs on the grounds that they are the easternmost representatives no the Turkic speaking peoples of Central Asia that tarragon at least should look to Turkey as their ethnic and cultural leader in recent years Eragon is poses the champion of the Turkic peoples most notoriously with his extravagantly costumed honor guard this guard includes one soldier representing the Uighurs in the15/50
photo here it's the third figure from the bottom on the left Turkey also became aggressive in its outreach to the leaders of the P. R. C. providing consular services and false passports to readers who managed to escape the P. R. C. to Thailand and other countries was a staple of Turkish policy by twenty fourteen and as a matter of public record we used to skate China16/50
were settled in designated communities inside Turkey weirdly presumably live under surveillance by Turkish security forces the darker aspect emerged as the P. R. C. alleged firstly a quasi state media and then hopefully through the ministry of foreign affairs that the Turkish government was covertly arranging Turkish passports for Uighurs still inching job and that some P. R. C. leaders were finding their way out of China and17/50
onto the battlefield in Syria Lebanese media reported on an entire week exile town in northern Syria populated both by weaker fighters and their dependents Turkey was also implicated in the provision of passports to the Uighurs who committed the notorious quinoline train station massacre of March first twenty fourteen that killed twenty nine people the perpetrators allegedly committed their crime when their regional plans to exfiltrate to Turkey18/50
via the Vietnam border will balked some apparently did escape the P. R. C. after the attack and were detained in Indonesia with Turkish passport south Wallace that they could not be characterized as counterfeit my personal opinion is that aired on sought to cultivate Uighur militants as a counterweight to Arabic speaking fighters supported by Gulf elements in Syria did the United States know what did they think19/50
if as the least Cary audio tape indicates the U. S. was not unwilling to see ISIS rise and become an additional pressure point on Bashar al Assad in Syria perhaps similar calculations were at work in U. S. attitudes at the time towards paragons of Uighur invention we %HESITATION militants under Turkish influence might have also look like an attractive power projection assets to the United States in20/50
Central Asia where you S. clout is waning but vulnerable stance might be susceptible to Turkish intimidation via some well trained battle hardened militant formations beyond the stances of course China whose autonomous region of Xinjiang is seen as a significant strategic vulnerability by U. S. planners I would speculate that order that any dreams Ertegun had of establishing himself as a hegemon of Central Asia with the help21/50
of a weaker militant cohort sounded on the implacable hostility the people's Republic of China Turkey's tilt toward Russia and the collapse of the US Turkish relations today for whatever reason the people's Republic of China is happy to see the US military is forcibly retiring weaker fighters in Syria remarkably the Turkestan Islamic party is not the only Uighur related militant force bedeviling the eastern hemisphere ISIS claimed22/50
credit for the horrific new year's eve massacre of terrain and night club in Istanbul the perpetrator was described in all reports has central Asian though Turkish media variously attributed the crime to a militant from Kyrgyzstan a weaker and most recently and %HESITATION spec national Abdul Qadeer Machar plus a sharp off if he is indeed the culprit may have been a week or ethnicity reportedly during his23/50
escape after the attack he sought and obtained assistance on a weaker restaurant now it is reported that newsmax inside Turkey helped him prepare the attack perhaps the true measure of his significance is non declare is reported fighter alias of it %HESITATION haunted par Sonny par Sonny looks to be a variation of course course on is an ambitious geographical marker isis the sickly uses for everything to24/50
the east of the Arab world on the Eurasian continent that deserves its own caliphate practically speaking it appears that the only real world Khorasan affiliate is probably a small group of militants in eastern Afghanistan who declared allegiance to ISIS and are identified as I SP P. Islamic state course on province the chorus on militants are reportedly a multi ethnic group composed of militants from the Pakistan25/50
Taliban and the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan despite its name is reportedly an all star team of Islamic militants from throughout the region including leaders we are strongly committed to Islamic insurgency through across Central Asia opposed the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan strongly anti China and also at loggerheads with the Turkestan Islamic party I Aske P. allows the P. R. C. to remind26/50
its neighbors that Islamic militancy is not just an issue for atheistic Han Chinese infidels occupying Xinjiang the I. S. pretensions to a central Asian caliphate potentially threatens all the states in the region and the arena massacred indicates that I escapee fighters may have been able to make their way across Asia not just to fight with ISIS in Syria but also operate within Turkey even though there27/50
were no Chinese killed in the raid attack and despite significant tensions in relations with Turkey over the Uighur issue the piercing ministry of foreign affairs responded with a special statement of concern and commitment to cooperation in the field of counterterrorism well you can go about musicians out of work and local folk book would you show work Johnson CA telling general nnova using this important issue will28/50
hold teaching questions about clicking onto so the piercing is dedicated to beating back not one but two Uighur related militant organizations focusing on Xinjiang that have been energized and enlarged by the war in Syria this probably accounts for the prompt and powerful push back China has given to what appears to be a foolhardy gambit by India modis attempt presumably backed by the United States to pose29/50
as Afghans primary security partner against Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in early December at the heart of Asia conference in Amritsar India Afghan president Ashraf Ghani publicly threw in with India as a strategic partner presumably at the behest of the United States Ganis remarks included pointed insults of Pakistan disdain for the Afghan Taliban disregard for China and a tongue bath pres for Indian prime minister Narendra30/50
Modi postures that I believe will prove to be excessive and premature in response the people's Republic of China Russia and Pakistan club together in a meeting in Moscow just after Christmas to declare that what people really need to worry about down there was the burgeoning isis straddling the Afghanistan not the Afghan Taliban western reporting focused on the disregarded the Moscow meeting three overwhelming and malign influence31/50
of Pakistan when Afghan security through its support of the Taliban insurgency this is all well and good however Pakistan is the P. R. C.'s main strategic asset on the subcontinent and the Afghan Taliban is the P. R. C.'s key interlocutor inside Afghanistan does not attack Chinese interests and it is not readily harbor meager fighters mody strategic vision for South Asia involves explicitly marginalizing a destabilizing Pakistan32/50
as this terrorist sponsoring state and implicitly involves curbing Chinese reach into South Asia by crippling Pakistan by posing as a protector of the people of Gilgit Baltistan blotches stand the two Pakistan territories that not coincidentally marked the northern and southern extremes of the China Pakistan economic corridor CPC mody is defective declared himself the enemy of the P. R. C. in South Asia added to that modis33/50
pursuit of G. of political confrontation with Pakistan also threatens the political fortunes of the P. R. C. friendly Afghan Taliban the bill's been wrong it cannot be underground and the P. R. C. sees its vital strategic and national security issues at stake and under threat in after acrimonious India the threat of Islamic militancy and weaker havens in northern Afghanistan dictate pretty unambiguously but the P. R.34/50
C. does not want to see the Afghanistan portfolio falling into the hands of India a pro U. S. adversary the P. R. C. has not been intimidated by moody's more aggressive posture against Pakistan the bad news for modi'in Ghani is that now it's not just China Russia has joined the Pakistan China axis presumably out of concern about U. S. ambitions to turn India into a full35/50
fledged military ally AFP reported rather anxiously but the Russian embassy in Kabul is being re stocked with the older generation of Askin hands and indication that neither China nor Russia overthrowing the Taliban or Pakistan under the bus just quite yet I'm looking for Gandhi to smell the coffee and walk back his pro India position otherwise I think he might find a situation turning pretty grisly it's36/50
worth noting that the United States and its Asian card is not the only items on the Chinese security agenda I believe that reflects a conscious P. R. C. policy of going where the U. S. isn't Central Asia or soon will be Afghanistan and dealing with the local balance of forces from a position of advantage as it sees fit however America still has the ability to set37/50
the world's and China's agenda in East Asia via North Korea Taiwan and the South China Sea plenty of opportunity for contention here with conflicts between the U. S. and P. R. C. over China's theft of a U. S. navy underwater drone and the furor surrounding Taiwan leader exciting ones visit to the United States and her meetings with Ted Cruz and the governor Texas but not Donald38/50
Trump but these perennial hot button issues are being overshadowed by the north Korean nuclear situation North Korea is the one area in which I hold out hopes that I consider realistic for a trump presidency assuming he makes it to his inauguration which is by no means given that's not because of the strategic vision of Donald Trump that's because the experts with whom is whoring on virtually39/50
every foreign policy front quietly concede the Obama administration North Korea policy simply isn't working and Hillary Clinton's defeat provides a chance for reset North Korea it should be pointed out is not a P. R. C. satellite or for that matter particularly China friendly state the DPRK started out as a core ally of the Soviet Union and the P. R. C.'s neo colonialist penetration into North Korea40/50
after the collapse of the USSR is deeply resented the DPRK has been attempting to cultivate ties with the United States as a counterweight to China for generations the United States for its part has cynically sperm these moves in large part I believe because the so called north Korean threat provides a rainy justification for military containment policies in north Asia that actually target the PRC since the41/50
George W. bush years US DPRK policy has in my opinion been a cavalcade of incompetence is highlighted by the ad hoc decision to designate North Korea as a member of the axis of evil it included an active and failed regime change policy in two thousand five two thousand six and finally the Obama administration's catastrophic for a into Libya which convince North Korea and the world that42/50
that any country that abandons its WMD deterrent is a vulnerable target of American regime change all of these have combined to turn north Korea's nuclear weapons diplomatic gambit into a matter of existential necessity the Obama administration tried to push away the North Korea problem by doing nothing which is dignified under the term strategic patience but North Korea whose industrial and technological infrastructure of apparently survive both43/50
the collapse of the USSR and a decade of U. S. let sanctions doggedly upgraded its nuclear weapons capability is now asserted quite plausibly that in the next few years the DPRK will demonstrate its ability to strike the US mainland with a nuclear tipped I CBM the set of affairs has galvanized the attention of the US foreign policy established and indeed the first classified briefing that Donald44/50
Trump reportedly received was on the north Korean nuclear issue Donald Trump tweeted out that North Korea would not be allowed to threaten the U. S. was nukes it's not going to happen U. S. options for not letting it happen range from the apocalyptic the decapitating strike that hopefully will not that turn South Korea into a sea of flames to the hopelessly hope for more better smarter45/50
sanctions the most logical alternative US negotiation with the DPRK is finally receiving the mainstream here the fact that the distance off the table so long has something to do with the Obama administration's anti proliferation posturing in his Nobel Prize but also a lot to do with the fact that if the U. S. tolerates the renegade DPRK arsenal South Korea will be strongly inclined to go nuclear46/50
itself and a south Korean goes nuclear then Japan will be strongly inclined to go nuclear and if the United States loses its position as the exclusive provider of nuclear deterrent against China minutes ability to set up the security agenda in Asia and control events for better or for worse will deteriorate now we're having a war of words over the fact that North Korea has stated it47/50
can and may do an I CBM test at the time of his choosing US defense secretary ash Carter has stated that the U. S. will shoot down a north Korean I CBM if it flies over or toward our friends and allies experts have stated but I hope that doesn't happen because our gazillion dollar into ICBM missile defense installation in Alaska might miss perhaps anxieties over damaged48/50
America's strategic posture in Asia will cause dangerous division and delay in the U. S. response and encouraged him Julian to escalate with an I CBM test and beyond thereby strengthening the hand of hawks were ready ready to do something reckless and radical I hope not North Korea edging toward the U. S. cap would be a poke in the eye for China DTG Quinn for the United49/50
States and perhaps a manageable security conundrum for US relations with Japan and South Korea the alternative of intransigent insistence that than North Korea denuclearize or risky decapitating strike simply becomes less palatable day by day Donald Trump at one time expressed interest in sharing a burger with king junior I say Eagleburger Donald so for this week thanks for watching if you found this video useful sharing news