ad-free
Channel / Source:
TEDx Talks
Published: 2015-01-12
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH_B5xh42xc
someone thought you guys wonderful buildings and our official told us the still I'm very excited about it I'm very passionate about it and %HESITATION it's it's growing at an exponential rate and what's exciting about it is we're not even at one percent of what artificial intelligence gonna be and but it is an exponential trend so by the year twenty thirty five a lot of experts are
saying that computers will be just as intelligent as a human floods and in about twenty years and by twenty forty five ray Kurzweil has has %HESITATION projected that jurors will be more intelligent than all of humans combine so this is an exponential trend just to give you a little bit of back on the boat %HESITATION the evolution of technology everything we use it develop technology to
replace our muscles right to due to pick up a bigger bolder to bid a bigger truck a bigger this a bigger that and a lot of physical things have been %HESITATION replaced by technology in the past in the last hundred years we've been replacing we've been doing things to enhance our brains for the calculator would be a simple example of enhancing our ways of doing math
and then we started automating things that were that were %HESITATION repetitive and angle was another type of artificial intelligence in the sense that if I had Google and nobody else here did I would seem like a very intelligent person what what this does is it it enhances our experience but it's not direct artificial intelligence now if you look at if you look at %HESITATION right now
in the stock market there's one company in the U. S. they do five hundred million automated treats per month so this is a robot that takes tons of information make decisions every millisecond and makes millions hundreds of millions of dollars every year and so this is just an example of some of the artificial intelligence is coming this is going to happen in every industry there's no
way that a human could do that there's no way that a human could compete with that because our sought so much information going through the system and it's moving at the speed of light so the next generation of a eyes can be more adoptive can you self learning it's gonna be intuitive so when things change that's when automation kind of filth but the next generation of
%HESITATION of automation what's gonna happen is if something changes it will be able to change its own rules and so just as an example of a nervous intelligence company and what what it does is if I give a simple command like I told the person to log on the website intuitively we know how to log into website we know what to do and it's the same
thing if you if you can record that pattern of behavior what you've seen enough websites a computer can do that as well and eventually basically anything that's on a computer will be able to be emulated and eventually these appears will be so intelligent that it'll it will lead to the singularity which is what records all called it and that will mean that the human race as
we know it will become obsolete citing isn't it so a lot of people think this is what's gonna happen when that happens but the reality is this is happened before two hundred years ago ninety percent of people worked in the agricultural age they worked in agriculture and so now two percent of people work in agriculture now are we better off or are we worse off the
better off things got better and the same thing's going to happen the next forty years as all these technologies get faster and faster they're going to be we're gonna see we're gonna have to shift to do something else but it's gonna be it's gonna be good for the for the human race in general because the robots will be working for us and what's also important understand
is the A. I. world will be virtual most people see a I as a robot but really Google when you do a Google search millions of algorithms are running in the background on server somewhere else and it's gonna be the same idea but they are going to be doing tests in a virtual world we can call out the matrix we can call it whatever you want
what's going to happen is that if you had if you want to get find the cure for cancer what more effective way to do it than the tests on a simulated human being a billion times with a certain drug right instead of doing it on a ride around among here and all these things you're going to do it in a simulated environment million times and let's
say this this a I was looking for a cancer drug this one's looking for Parkinson's drug and this is a I will develop a theory on try to on trying to find a cure for that that disease and it may find something that helps all the Parkinson's all these billions of a eyes will all be working together and in the next generation most inventions and most
jurors in medical fields will be found by a I am not by humans now when is this going to happen well Bill Gates said we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and we underestimated change that will occur in the next ten and the reason he says that is because of exponential growth think about Moore's law where technology doubles every two
years technology now twenty five or fifty years ago if you had a cell phone you have a cell phone now fifty years ago it's more powerful than all the computers combined and so computers going faster and faster and faster and are getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and so twenty five years from now the projecting that computers will will be able to our our cellphones eyes
computer we fit able to fit into a self into a blood cell so you'll be able to take a vaccine and maybe we'll go inside repair body who knows of the techno neck nanotechnology is growing at an exponential rate as well for nanotechnology medical technology all these technologies are growing exponentially and we're not even in the baby phase of what's going on these transit are going
to start to go up and things are gonna change drastically very quickly fifteen hundred years ago or fifty nine years ago in the past before the year zero it took about fifteen hundred years to double knowledge so if every fifteen hundred years you'd you would double knowledge so you have two times a knowledge and a fifteen hundred years after the double again and so we started
writing books and we start to write things down and language and things like that and it's hard to happen every two hundred fifty and then we discovered science and then it started hopping into every twenty five years and then we create the create information technology happen every eight years and now we're in the information age and it's happening every year so literally every twelve months human
knowledge is doubling and so we're getting to a point where the human brain can't comprehend all the information that's coming in and so what's gonna happen is two hundred years ago you could have an expert in ten different fields if you study them enough now you can barely be an expert in one field you have to go into a section of a section of a section
of the field and be an expert in that and and to make an impact in that field will be very difficult and so the human brain has about eighty six billion neurons about four times as much as a chimpanzee it's not enough so this is where artificial intelligence his is going to come in all this information that's coming in it's gonna get managed by artificial intelligence
but at the same time human is the human kind is gonna learn from this area so what if we could add ten times the neurons that you have in your brain what if you get a hundred what if you had at a million million times in your own that you have right now into the cloud so wirelessly connecting Madden if you had a doctor that's as
I don't like technology internet site for me and then you had another one where information is doubling every year in fact it's going to double every twelve hours at one point according to IBM so imagine one month goes by that one month it has doubled sixty times so you need to take an eight year degree to learn what happened last month right not gonna happen for
the doctor that's connected to a I he's going to walk in the doctor's office he's gonna run windows update boom he's learned everything that happened last month and this is how things are gonna happen they're gonna accelerate at a dizzying pace and it's gonna be incredible now my last slide here is the is the matrix so at some point we're going to have to make a
choice maybe take the blue pill and you believe whatever you wanna believe and I I don't believe it people will be forced into the system and you know if you don't want to live in reality you could go in and play something or play again and it already exists called video games right but if you want to be able to work crafting be Afanasy fighter and
do all that stuff you can do it in a virtual world fill your boots but if you want to take part in the next fifteen hundred years which forty years from now we will look back to today and say I cannot believe we used to do that in the medical field in every in every field possible we'll look back and say I cannot believe you mounted
advances that happened in next thirty years there's gonna be just as much change happen that happened in the last two thousand and technology is exquisite exploding and but it's going to be good it's gonna be good for all of us we're actually going to benefit from it might even be able to work less right %HESITATION use to work eighty hours a week right when you say
