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TEDx Talks
Published: 2017-03-22
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRw4d2Si8LA
good morning everyone %HESITATION I'm here to wake you up because Sunday morning and %HESITATION that I'm going to speak about a I and robots and all that sort of stuff and I I would suggest that you will be awake by the end of that talk of the very very least now knowledge is power that's what Frances bacon famously said more than four hundred years ago and
I was thinking how is this actually today so we start with the question who here knows one exabyte is other than the fact is a very large number ten to the power of eighteen you see I couldn't picture this the image you see behind the number that's the library of Congress in Washington DC which is the largest librarian the world unless you listen to the people
from bitch library who think they have about five items more but some %HESITATION that doesn't matter so much so the entire printed content of the labor of Congress can be stored on an exabyte one hundred thousand times so last year there you go last year we exchanged information over the internet to the tune of eleven hundred exabytes that's one hundred and ten million times the library
the content of the lobby of Congress in one year and each and everyone of you in here has access to that vial you smart phones that is doubtlessly new parking hopefully on site so in front of the background the question is is knowledge actually still power today no we don't live we live in the edge of the computer the one you see here was one of
the most powerful mainframes of its day it's an IBM machine I'm it was so powerful actually that adds this was the machine used ground control used for the Apollo eleven mission to put a man on the moon they ran the most sophisticated programs the most complex stuff in its day on the program size was six megabyte which is actually less than ten percent of candy crush
saga on him from now all this goes back to his man Gordon Moore one of the founders of Intel who is the author of Moses law which of course isn't really a little but he basically said that roughly every eighteen to twenty four months the number of transistors on a chip will double and therefore it's not a straight line but it would basically mean that the
computing power will double the when you when you look at the graph you would see this is an exponential one %HESITATION and you know it's sad to say but Moore's law is dying I'm %HESITATION or interests get slower and we're still waiting for the new chip generation where almost three years in I'm fear not though because there is new stuff on the horizon %HESITATION as quantum
computing I'm and I have absolutely no idea what that's supposed to you %HESITATION I'm other than Justin Theroux who can actually explain it %HESITATION however we have a son who thankfully is %HESITATION a for the city he just filed his thesis on practical quantum computing things crusted where we ought %HESITATION and Sam so yeah he said look it's actually very simple %HESITATION them what is on
here is accurate in other words if a really fast modern computer can read invert colors every book in the library a quantum computer can read every book in the library at once so we're looking at several orders of magnitude in computing power that we will be adding gotten was one in ten years time fifty years time soon I'm an old that rise in computing power %HESITATION
%HESITATION allows as to %HESITATION that you look at it a lot more complex %HESITATION problems of computing %HESITATION and that is what is now known about fish intelligence away I when I grew up this thing existed only in science fiction movies %HESITATION %HESITATION but is very much with us today and I'm going to show you a little bit about now if you've been reading the papers
in particular over the last year or so you will also have come across the term machine learning I'm and if you are in that space you know exactly what it means if not it actually means what it says on the tin namely the machines are coming M. now it starts review harmless we look you know this is a factory worker and you think come on you
know we've had industrial robots in car factories for decades and history is nothing you I'm last summer however I I'd stumble across this this headline %HESITATION company called Foxconn was the largest manufacturer of consumer electronics in the world did they they build about a third of the entire consumer electronics and went into no they announced that they would replace sixty thousand workers with robots and what's
that is in itself a really scary big number what really really I thought was shocking was that this means that someone who makes five dollars a day is now too expensive and therefore would be replaced by by technology the same thing you find frozen warehouse logistics those little orange things there are robots that should bed that drive shelves towards the poor guy would still have to
pack them in an Amazon warehouse I'm an acquired that company that won't put fifty thousand of those in the into their various warehouses it also works it also works for for very large packages port of LA they've those things drive themselves and if you want to take it a notch darker %HESITATION this guy might be your next release it's faster than using bold and he'd lasts
longer than only a hundred meters you don't out run him %HESITATION meanwhile in the parking lot of uber this friendly down like here is doing the permit to control and make sure that there's no bad ombres coming in %HESITATION and Sam %HESITATION putting the work to shame now yet a non starter %HESITATION if if you need a you know sniper %HESITATION if you know the government
printing need to go to the dark wet but you can buy this thing today I mean this is this is commercial grades killer drugs I mean there's also you think well you know there's there's nothing but this builder can build your house from brick and mortar in two days never draws a sick he'd never needs a needs needs needs a day of vacation never gets ill
and never has a bad back from all those bricks army but there's also like like red really fun stuff hello tech there you go %HESITATION deserves a pizza delivery guy and you think he'd do this is awesome rides is I'm just diving out dominoes and and and order it now if you live in Oakland New Zealand if someone is listening %HESITATION you can do this today
because it dominoes and %HESITATION eh and flirty which is a homemaker %HESITATION they actually started trialing pizza delivery via drones in November of last year do you know if you think I'm talking to you about a far flung future know these things are happening today and anything well but you know in in dense urban environments you cannot fly drones %HESITATION and fear non clicker there you
go I'm you can also get an army of cinema just rolled along nicely on the pavement and deliver the delivery of pizza to the front door they went live two weeks ago in Washington DC and and and redwood city in California if you think pizza pizza pizza is is all too boring you know there is of course also a robot that can cook up to two
thousand meals and you can buy these things no Wilbur takes it not higher not only paramedic control with friendly down experts they actually started trialing self driving cars to pick up real passenger in and not only in in in some some odd little place where no one lives but in Pittsburgh which is fairly densely densely populated and %HESITATION if you don't want to ship around people
but things this truck has been trying on the roads of Nevada for the last four years no the backdrop to this is worldwide about four hundred million people earn their living by shipping people or things for me to be and they're all in the purses of being potentially displaced that's a Sunday ride we should do a bit of culture media only how I'm you can look
up on Spotify it's very very Jensen nice piano music I'm the thing however is Emily how is an outgrowth signed to a label for the time being I'm so address and only listen to it because amazing arm and then last %HESITATION last autumn I stumble across this headline %HESITATION %HESITATION the good folks from Goober deep mines deep mind is company based out of London was acquired
by Google and they they published is relieved complex scientific article about about waving and which is which generates audio and that means that the next time we how will actually all to be able to sing and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference if that's a human being or not and you know you might have one of those since last Christmas in your in your
kitchen Hale except play me very my son note the background to voice recognition and voice output is you know that's a really complex from problem and it is that let's go one further this system that from your what's called dexter and is a very nice nice nice face but it's also his camera so he will watch you doing things and then he will learn from that
so if you fold a shirt dexter will from you doing it lunch out for the shirt now that's pretty cool in itself but last summer than there were there there were some guys from I think it was Carnegie Mellon %HESITATION who said well you know wouldn't be cool if any robots of different makes and kinds and could actually teach each other so this isn't live yet
but said I'm them and they're in there and be to states and they actually start to developing languages so that you know you have some robot in summer in Japan is that Hey guys you know I don't know I really don't know how to fold sure can you help me out Texas it I got %HESITATION when I was little I I trained as a lawyer and
my dad said look you know I mean this is this is son become a lawyer or an accountant or a doctor right it said you're safe perhaps what I'm not well I am because I flipped the that the profession quickly enough but Sam %HESITATION again last summer last summer is a good good summer for a I %HESITATION took a chance one of the largest law firms
in the world %HESITATION %HESITATION one of the big man's extra performs in London and Baker Hostetler is that there's a large law from the U. S. they both deploys difference A. I. lawyers in their practice and the bankruptcy practice in the US the guys and %HESITATION and took her chances for one of the most lucrative parts of corporate law which is corporate greed due diligence this
today now the end result of all this is is that you know we need to jobs will automation will take every job it can take the number of people working in in agriculture in the U. S. dropped from that from about ninety percent in in in the in the %HESITATION around eighteen hundred to about I think about two %HESITATION by twenty ten %HESITATION and said what
you can see from that it's it's not the immigrants guys it's it's automation and yes I am so you might want to ask you what is it you do how many repetitive tasks on your world to view an accountant stop looking if you're a radiologist suggest you might want to retry it's very very good or anything that has repetition in that the machine could in theory
and I'm not saying this is going to happen tomorrow but a machine can in theory do this better foster cheaper and without without any and the %HESITATION %HESITATION vacation now however we are being told right is not only doom and gloom there's new clickers in town %HESITATION there's new jobs for you when I read through this list are like what the heck even use this what
is the memory augmentation therapist but what on earth do you learn if you want to become a tie for active optics modela it's funny isn't it but you know this is an actual job that from two thousand fifty where someone was looking for defective optical who knows what he'll the arms everyone else needs to speak over the kids guys it's too long didn't read in other
words if something is so long that you could be bothered to read you look at the at the short summary so ray Kurzweil is %HESITATION as if future role adjust to whatever you call those people he's a scary record in being very very accurate it's in his predictions I've summarized this for you so he basically says all this monarchy about faster computing that I spoke to
you about will lead to foster innovation because we can deploy all that power that would effectively then means that we should be faster and better at finding solutions to like really heart problems things like diseases of hunger an energy crisis he said we'll all be solved which eventually will lead to immortality unless you really Catholic we know %HESITATION bodies will eventually become obsolete and then the
last step is that we will be one into connected hive mind god knows what he was smoking that but %HESITATION but you know when you think it for that there's actually possibility in no matter what you think about this it means that change is coming and change is accelerating you're very likely living in an age today where this is slowest it will arguably accelerate through now
this is nothing new right changing loan is eternal perpetual immortal is a Schopenhauer like hundreds of years back I'm what I can do what I can tell you however is to just sit here and hope it will happen it's a bad idea is a really bad idea now where do we go from here I think there is a BKC made to rebuild society because the whole
demarcation line between capital and labor might be a bit unhinged but that's an entirely different talk the cupboard tactical steps that can take away a little bit of your fear fear the big one is education now as a stop gap should human machine collaboration you know this certain things that machines are actually struggling with things that that aren't standardized things that you know activity in and
dexterity sets address so you know you can do that but it's not only in in %HESITATION %HESITATION in manufacturing it's also you may have made may recall last spring or so %HESITATION %HESITATION there was any I Alfa go and that beat the world's best ever like the Roger Federer of go %HESITATION and Sam and %HESITATION with an amazing array of Nora networks however those were all
trained on human so he could arguably not have done it without humans and when you speak to scientists everyday they use massive computers and data sets to actually do that and then and then and then go with it so there is that collaborative side have a longer term let's have a look at what is specifically Schuman because we can find and define it and then nurture
it then we can arguably find a way to inoculate ourselves against that machine revolution and not end up like the poor folks in the matrix I'm so there are things that remain with love they're things that carry emotional value no this is the pattern my wife cuts who's a tailored to make me this jacket and despite the fact that she's bi beloved wife but if you're
going through that process a vote of a bespoke jacket you know that this to the last button holds was handmade by highly skilled crafts person who do this not only for the money but because they actually left this this is something that the machine will struggle to replicate empathy is another one machines can actually recognize %HESITATION that but they can be but they don't of course