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TEDx Talks
Published: 2014-04-23
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csnxJFQw98k
I'd like to ask is a fundamental question this afternoon perhaps the most fundamental question which the human race confronts in the twenty first century the most fundamental question will this be the century which is best known which is marked it is overshadowed by the triumph of technology or would it be the century which is marked by the triumph of humanity will we be able to frame
these extraordinary developments in technology in such a way that they in Hans engage flourishing of the human race that seems to me the question of the twenty first century in fact one could argue that it is the question of human history because four out out throughout our history we have been striving toiling working laboring to create tools homo sapiens wise man the name of our species
is also a homo Faber the man who makes things humanity who creates tools to enable us to do our work and we can see the history of the human rights as a historian which we are able to accomplish more and more and more through the leveraging of our human efforts by hand by brain using tools and this twenty first century and the extraordinary experience of which
we find ourselves our generation is this century in which there is no question with these tools will become very rapidly foster and foster more pervasive more enabling more powerful more open to abuse more open to enabling the flourishing of our human species so that seems to me to be very question we face this year I need sheer all the twenty first century not the most elegant
way in which these technologies are beginning to affect us is a way which is very troubling could also be very hopeful and I want to take you on to a journey into a future which I believe may not be beyond the lives of many in this room in which we have a world without work in which all tools have been developed so well but they do
all of our work forests in which artificial intelligence robotics has taken the load of human toil off the shoulders of the human species and essentially work labor for money which we have been schooled into believing is what we must do since about hunter gatherers and worked in this random way we've moved to what an industrial society for which we are educated to which we are prepared
in which means they've are pay our way we face the future I do not know how far ahead I don't know how likely but I do think it is a significant possibility and it's a significant possibility in our lifetimes in which work is no mall how do we frame this future it's just a few charge which takes us to heaven on earth in which we need
not work or is it a future which takes us to a hello owner imagery cannot work I believe this to be a question we should be taking far more seriously than we have beat whether we as individuals in our family is in our professional groups in our society is or whether we ask those who influence governments and labor unions and investment policies it flows of capital
in the global order because I think this is a question which is certainly a serious as things like the climate question certainly a serious ass things like the possible end of antibiotics these are huge risk questions confronting the human community we have to address them not to reassure some of you and to worry others these are not just questions coming from the radical left to maybe
our most critical of technology not questions coming from not like some of you will know the name of net not to Richard my for my country I now live in America that Britain had the first industrial revolution and gangs of men went around smashing equipment because they believe it will destroy their jobs and of course they were right and they were led by a man called
Ned lot so not Islam is the name we given Paul smashing the technology because it will destroy jobs nah I'm not coming here to play the part of not logged what is interesting so this is really very new in the last two or three years we now see mainstream centrist responsible boringly respectable people beginning to raise this question so for example to MIT economists a published
two books in the last three or four years raising these questions and seeing major losses of work because of robotics the Financial Times had an article London's boring financial newspaper on this very question few months ago perhaps the most comprehensive discussion Oxford university has a centre called Martin instituted his futurist center the groups you know but transhumanist also giving feels yeah for the future of these
are not in any way Luddites they produce a fascinating report which argues that forty seven percent of jobs in America in twenty years time are likely to go not close interesting number forty seven percent Brazil is forty seven percent of the land mass of Latin America you'll know the map of your country imagine that land mass removed it's almost half the jobs in the U. S.
economy they analyze seven hundred two different jobs a detailed examination that's what they think not for example look at the company's just to samples of what's going on I mean the last look at the news the last two three weeks what Zac bought by Facebook for nineteen billion dollars do you know how many employees walks out has it has fifty five nineteen billion dollars in capital
fifty five people with jobs huge value or to take perhaps an even more striking example it connects us directly to the old economy Instagram this is Kodak Kodak for two generations dominated global photography at its height it had a hundred and forty five thousand employees in the company itself plus all the distributors and photoshops Instagram some dispute as to exactly how many members stop it has
it's around eleven I could not make this up you can go put it while we have to speaking new kinds of value delivered in ways that involve hardly any human labor so what I am arguing is that we have a prospect here in which you are essentially removing the human factor the labor factor from the value equation capital technology deliver value humans are increasingly unnecessary and
you know the technologies which we discussing I three quick examples to stick this in your head Google because the G. because California now as allowing these because five hundred thousand miles driven not one accident caused by the com two accidents because because the human drive I don't want it and took it over again I'm not making that up Fonseca wired magazine recently argued this technology may
begin ways trucks trucks because space is far higher than much more dangerous misses a far safer way to drive you know the bill because they have this thing spinning on the top spends ten times a second every second it absorbs more than a million data points it's very sophisticated far safer I don't know how many truck drivers are on Brazil in the United States on a
five point three million truck driving jobs ten years time fifteen years time I suspect that will be zero truck driving jobs I got to try to inflict it interest me at U. S. labor unions F. at AFL CIO in having this conversation I drew them into a conference which we had recently but I don't see particularly worried did you know the teamsters may end up the
big truck drivers union with no members seem particularly worried people people think that the future will be so like the present that's why the futurists are risky second example of costs out we have form IBM Watson you know IBM's supercomputer which one jeopardy which made it a very famous most famous computer in the world they're not using IBM Watson for medical diagnosis diagnosis of what family
doctors do is the main thing they do they don't do it very well will they be family doctors seeing patients in fifteen years time when you can have a super computer and you can have a no so you could have a terminal taking all symptoms for example the close mics mix M. O. O. C. massive open online courses these huge AI based courses which Stanford MIT
or offering experimenting with these courses in which the key thing is is that zero marginal cost so basically you can have ten students in a class or you could have a million students in a class it doesn't cost any more and one of our topics but some innovation has said he reckons in ten years time ninety percent of American colleges may have closed I think maybe
he's pushing it a bit but foods that I mentions incredible opportunities for global education and parts of the world where you will never get the kind of capitalist Abish major universities we have in the west what not all of opportunities well people with PH DS so now the standard answer of course which some of you already giving as you get cross with me standard onset of
this argument is but people like you will always be wrong in the past the first industrial revolution industrial pollution sickness every wave of invention innovation destroys large numbers of jobs and creates even more and creates formal wells it will happen again well I have to say I regard that isn't just a revolution fundamentalism the notion it what then it what they don't always work that is
a very dangerous way to think two reasons first of all the pace of change Moore's law exponential curves it's getting pretty steep recaps what was being quoted earlier genius of a man who believes the singularity will come in twenty forty five or something when the robot intelligence become smarter than Austin takes over I think he's wrong but this guy does not head of engineering for Google
this is moving very fast now secondly and we had this discussion recently at my think tank and I we had leading it often Michael Marshall brain who is a computer scientist who began a famous website how stuff works one of the early then if successful website he sold years ago Marshall brain said the problem with this argument is that of course this new revolution in technology
will create a whole lot of new jobs but who will do these jobs machines will do these jobs it's the whole point so you know Isaac Asimov funeral had these famous three laws of robotics all four because he stuck one in the beginning colder zero which is basically all about robots being nice to people they shouldn't harm people this is wonderfully marvelous liberal sort of movie
I'd now because we have drone robots going around telling people somehow or other as him off you know if you have not been built into our technologies the point is he could not add another mole said a robot will never take a job from a man or a woman who needs it that is the question so how do we put these pieces together I began by
saying this is the greatest question all of our century how do we freedom this question if technology essentially tools to serve the human rights our humanity or ultimately is technology the point are we meant to conform to technology is technology going to win as a technological model of what it means to be alive to be thinking to be active is that really what you want to
go we basically just roll the poor robots we're on the pull computers you wanna get out of the way where I'm just into on the hardware of this New World well seems to me we invent the wheel that's a tool we invent the ads of course in this country where you have primitive tribes still using very basic technology side by side with a highly advanced economy
you see this very clearly these are just tools we must remain the most tools tools to be used in the interests of a human can it's how we frame these things set the context replace around them the way we understand what it is but they're full not because we begin to conclude I have three three question to leave you with one seems to me to be
really very very evident that is to say we're talking here about highly advanced technologies and how we will operate when we have robots doing almost all of our work I didn't think would be novelists and playwrights and somebody gonna they will try to be but I'm not that's not my point we will all get jobs novelist and parts almost all of our what is doable by
smart smart computing not first question is through the existing technology we have you know we have these little smart phones which goes a highly highly powerful computers may accidentally call them phones because occasion we even use them as far I'm we have these things now how were the integrated into our social lives to what extent do they harm some humanity what is one of the turning
this into a machine to walk around bumping into people typing in the middle of the day people are pulling them out under the table in the bar you know you know how it happens our team the car does you know I think he's a wonderful things and I use mine all the time but how do we integrate them into a social purpose so they help the
human race so the art tools for us to use in order that we might flourish as human beings a question for now the question we should be much more worried about now I think these tools are extraordinary I wouldn't be here if I hadn't had been chatting with I'm on twitch up three or four years ago we've been thing over the yes these tools are extraordinary
we must integrate into our social personal lives second question plainly this prospect of heaven or hell of a world without work is a future prospect but of course the future you have to go to the future to make the decisions today and tomorrow that's why this is so I'm what are the impacts of this way of thinking even if it's just a better present possibility in
perhaps you know forty years time however you do the calculation miscalculation I do the climb as you do with antibiotics whatever the calculus is how do we use that to affect decision making now in the policy community in the corporate community you know I am she opens among our industrial how should these reflections influence decisions taken today at the policy level I think there are profound
implications that not least we have an educational system designed to turn us into industrial creatures creatures for fort ism the factory system we've loosened up a bit we talk about stand more time now it's the same idea training workers now if when you get to be twenty two would you leave college you retire what should you have been doing for the previous seventeen years questions about
about income socialism says we should be distributed on this issue socialism this is the good of the community from a complete different perspective income may have no direct relation to the work you do that question this may be the most important question for you of the twenty first center we began with the question for the human race now the question for you if you never had
