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Title: Trump Plays the Taiwan Card
Published: 2017-01-18
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA9x8-o40xc
Title: Trump Plays the Taiwan Card
Published: 2017-01-18
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA9x8-o40xc
1/40
god I am Peter Lee and this is news leads China watch this week hostage situation the incoming trump administration grabs the China watch spotlight the provocative statements on the South China Sea and Taiwan but first a quick update to last week's segment on Turkey's connections with Uighur militants Turkish state media reported an Istanbul court had arrested two Chinese citizens for complicity in the new year's eve2/40
rain and I club attack that killed thirty nine judging by their names these two men are probably Uighurs by identifying these two men as Chinese but Turkish government seems to be signaling its willingness to endorse the Chinese narrative which is that the Turkish system of asylum for weaker refugees which allegedly grew to include provision of false passports for fighters who went on to Syria is unsustainable3/40
in its present form well now on to this week and the South China Sea rex to listen the X. Exxon CEO and trump administration nominee for secretary of state testify before the house foreign relations committee on January eleventh to listen known in the twittersphere as T. rex roiled waters of the South China Sea by stating that it was necessary to send a signal to China that4/40
it's quote access in quote to the man made islands it is constructed in the South China Sea will not be allowed here's a video clip of tiller since testimony what about this one wavy or well it's big and terrible that's not really rex to listen of course but those or actual pundits were vocally appalled by two listens apparently cavalier advocacy of a name whoever you're blockade5/40
of the man made islands in this case I would say I'm not too concerned the rest of two listens testimony was pretty mainstream and not to World War three ash I think he misspoke when I wrote an article about this for news but link below it was killer since fifth hour of testimony and he's got a right to flood a few lives the most obvious alternative6/40
was that he meant to say something like China would not be allowed to militarize those islands which would fit in with the general drift of US China policy China president xi Jinping made a promise to president Obama that he would quote militarize those islands in she's own mind and apparently with the grudging understanding of the United States this apparently meant he would not turn those islands7/40
into offensive bases that could threaten shipping Mamie's and so on on the other hand satellite photo shows signs but the P. R. C. is perhaps fortifying these islands but defensively in the spirit she's discussions with Obama with some sort of anti aircraft and anti missile systems unfortunately the U. S. ability to complain about here see defensive measures on these islands is limited by the fact that8/40
US secretary of defense ash Carter in his wisdom decided to organize the twenty sixteen U. S. Philippine Bahlika town joint military exercise around a simulated amphibious assault somebody's I'll in any case the US ability to blockade in Ireland is relatively constrained under international law the US itself doesn't take positions on third party sovereignty disputes as a rule let alone organize invasions to resolve them even in9/40
the case of the Senkaku is in the East China Sea which fall under the US Japan mutual defense treaty the US has not affirmed Japanese sovereignty over those islands which it disputes with China in fact a blockade would open the United States up to the charge that it is impeding freedom of navigation that's more than awkward since the public pretext for the U. S. injecting itself10/40
into the South China Sea disputes since twenty ten was you guessed it upholding the principle of freedom of navigation that's not to say the U. S. camp blockade an island if it wants to go on the grounds of national security the US navy has buildings full of people whose only job is to explain why blockade and blowing something up is completely right necessary and legal as11/40
long as it's the US navy that's doing it if the trump administration wants to find a justification for blockade in the Chinese man made island they'll do it but I don't think they want the Chinese who pushed back immediately apparently don't believe it either they said they were going to wait and see I think to listen just misspoke and that's what a trump transition team member12/40
told Reuters on background the waters were money of course by an official authorized to speak on behalf of the transition team telling reporters that to listen did not misspeak and that statement was made in the exact same article bottom line in my opinion the new American administration is voicing his gut check time for U. S. resolve in standing up to China wants to listen made that13/40
statement the trump people aren't going to walk it back and look weak on China whether they actually go ahead and blocking the Chinese all Ireland well that's another story at the same time it's clear that the trump administration wants to draw a bright line between the relatively moderate legalistic and circumspect Obama China policy and a new Trusteer more assertive trump policy it seems that one way14/40
trump hopes to deflect accusations that he's in the tank for Putin and Russia to be tough on China it looks like the place to start being tough on China is probably going to be Taiwan over the weekend trump told the wallstreet journal that all elements of America's China policy were in play including the one China policy by which the United States would hold formal diplomatic recognition15/40
from Taiwan and does official government to government dealings exclusively with the government in Beijing trump put it everything is under negotiation including one China if one China policy is on the table that means Taiwan independence is on the TV I'd like to pause at this moment to address anxious and angry never truckers never truckers in my opinion the way to understand trump is not as a16/40
bigoted unstable psycho baby desperate for validation and approval maybe he is all those things but the key to understand trump is in my opinion he's a deal maker and a hostage taker he identifies thing do you care about that you can't completely control but he can mess up any trends so you're forced to deal with it Michael Palmer care what does that mean for China in17/40
my opinion means moving away from the Obama administration's focus the Obama doctrine identified all the wonderful things America cares about human rights internet freedom the principal international orders like to call it and insisted that China care about them too even if China didn't want to care trump in my opinion turns that paradigm on its head the trunk doctor is about finding something China really cares about18/40
grabbing onto it and making China scream that's Taiwan Taiwan is the most prominent diplomatic and political vulnerability for China unlike the other rest of P. R. C. claims Tibet Xinjiang Hong Kong the South China Sea Taiwan is beyond the P. R. C.'s administrative control and it's drifting further and further away when the P. R. C. in the U. S. concluded the Shanghai communique in nineteen seventy19/40
two and adopted the one China formula Taiwan was still ruled by a woman dawn apparatchiks would fled the mainland with John kai shek acted to defeat by the communists in nineteen forty nine they occupy Taiwan who lived under martial law and brutally suppressed indigenous political and cultural expression thinking and hoping that Taiwan could be re United with the mainland as a conclusion to the civil war20/40
was a remote but feasible expectation at that time but in the intervening years Taiwan democratized while on the mainland the CCP massacre ten among protesters and screwed up the one country to see systems political end game in Hong Kong parallel with and in some ways independent to these political forces a distinct identity as Taiwanese opposed to Chinese has been emerging naturally on the island as the21/40
mainland generation dies off today reunification with the mainland is politically dead on Taiwan independence dominates the mind set particularly among the young polls and polls need to be taken with a grain of salt but as a recent survey in Taiwan indicated a solid majority of under forties considered themselves only Taiwanese and not Chinese and supported independence by a margin of four to one for the time22/40
being most Taiwanese support the current status quo of peace and quiet and economic ties with the mainland but pull reported quote forty three percent of the under forty generation would support independence even if it meant China would attack Taiwan under the risk of war and quote in case of a conflict in other words we can expect significant numbers of Taiwanese would rally around the flag and23/40
here's what that Taiwan flag looks like since we don't get to see it very often Taiwan independence activists don't like this flag by the way because it's the old son yet Sam KMT Republic of China flag brought over from the mainland an independent Taiwan flag might look more like this Chinese nationalist don't like this flag because they consider it a nod to the Japanese imperial chrysanthemum24/40
seal and maybe they've got a point the nationalists complained has some plausibility because another headache for the P. R. C. is that the historical orientation of indigenous Taiwanese is not west toward the mainland as much as north to Japan who is China's strategic adversary Japan ruled Taiwan from eighteen ninety five until nineteen forty five in contrast to the genocidal brutality of Japanese rule over Korea will25/40
over Taiwan is relatively benign and is remembered fondly by Taiwanese the pre nineteen forty nine generation that is to say those who immigrated from southern China in centuries past additionally in the last period of colonial rule from nineteen thirty six to nineteen forty five Japan moved to a policy of encouraging assimilation of the people of Taiwan into the Japanese polity very much long lines of what26/40
occurred in Okinawa another racially and politically distinct colonized entity the Japanese government encourage speaking of Japanese use of Japanese names and service in the Japanese military forces the first indigenous president of Taiwan the don't play now ninety two years old is described as the spiritual head of the Taiwan independence movement he speaks Japanese not Mandarin Chinese as a second language Lee's brother died in the service27/40
of the Japanese empire and so his name is inscribed the notorious Yasukuni shrine Lee made a point of visiting the shrine in two thousand seven which actually gave the Chinese connections in twenty fifteen Lee also referred to Japan as Taiwan's motherland leaders also maintain ties with Japanese ultranationalists like Shintaro Ishihara who despise China harbor nostalgia for the glories of the pre war era and we'll be28/40
happy to welcome and assist the return of an independent Taiwan into the bosom of the Japanese family Taiwan president signing one is also of non mainlander stock incomes from the pro independence wing of the Taiwan political spectrum the democratic people's party or DPP she is actively promoted Japanese investment as an alternative to the mainland in order to reduce Taiwan's economic and political vulnerability to China current29/40
Japanese prime minister Ave for his part it's characterized Taiwan as a friend that Japan should cherish so pretty much all the demographic social political and economic trends are pushing today's Taiwan away from mainland China a big factor in bucking that trend and maintaining the status quo between the PRC and Taiwan is America's adherence as a global norm sector to the one China policy in other words30/40
America's got leverage Donald trumps threatening to use it I don't think that necessarily means taking on Taiwan to declare independence although believe it or not that's what Donald Rumsfeld was doing clandestinely in the early years of the George W. bush administration it's up to signing one not Donald Trump to decide how quickly and how far to push that envelope independence is an existential issue for Taiwan31/40
guarantee an immediate economic crisis and perhaps a military one as well decisions along and across this line will not be taken lightly and will be made by the government of people of Taiwan not Donald Trump and these decisions will not I think be taken with the misconception that Donald Trump has Taiwan's back if trump regards the Taiwan issue primarily as a pawn in his dealings with32/40
Beijing he will sacrifice that point quickly casually and callously it suits his purpose in any case even if they knighted states decided it wanted to give Taiwan all the missiles and submarines it needs to credibly to terror P. R. C. military retaliation for a declaration of independence I guess that's a ten year project at least in other words it's not going to happen during the Donald33/40
Trump era but the United States Kim upgrade its relationships with Taiwan in ways that inconvenience China this might include sealed defensive equipment including perhaps even the China detested T. age eighteen or tad the theater high altitude missile defense system which would expand the capabilities of the U. S. centered anti ballistic missile network in Asia it is I dare say not well known that a key element34/40
of U. S. Taiwan military cooperation a long range radar system facing the mainland with a range of three thousand kilometers at a cost of one point four billion dollars has already been operational in Taiwan for three years the US could also signal is encouragement of Taiwan's attempts to buy modern diesel submarines from Japan or Europe something that the U. S. is discouraged up until now because35/40
of intense PRC opposition DPP affairs insider journalist gene Michael Cole reported that Japan had stated it would not enter into discussions concerning the submarine business as long as Taiwan was under the rule of the mainland friendly KMT regime of my angel now that money is gone and sighs in Japan would probably be ready to talk sigh and other high level Taiwanese officials could also be welcomed36/40
by truck and by the leaders perhaps of the countries allied with the United States or trump might do exactly nothing here's what our NC chair rinsed creemos set on a Sunday morning talk show after the tours in testimony in the trump interview there are no plans change the one China policy but certainly that policy is on the table if China doesn't also come to the table37/40
and work with us one treed work with us on the South China Sea and what's happening there it reads previous is to be believed or more correctly if he's considered tad anymore insight into the intentions of the truck administration that marginalize journalism sideline pundits the trump position is this if the people's Republic of China persists in its undesirable envelope pushing activities in the South China Sea38/40
stealing U. S. drones ceiling around its aircraft carrier dallying with the Philippines baby thinking of more island building it doesn't give truck a few wins on trade and investment well nice fake Taiwan province you got there heat to see anything happen to it right now Taiwan is loving it especially signed the DPP whose popularity has been sliding in recent months here's the way Thailand's famous animators39/40
layout that sigh trump relationship Tyler time is going since on the hoods or once you build a lets you died fun for your son's hiding when roots in the unfolding oceans are called out to hook one fun for soooo gore we've was of course also uses a Volvo but how when that's what those houses we will work toward fomented by you just for fun save one