ad-free
A marketplace for speech.
82,434 Hours of Speech
help
help
516,076 Transcriptions
add title (free)
add title (free)
406 Sources
add source €0.99
add source €0.99
Search:
Newsbud
Title: The Four-War Problem: The Trump Administration Tips Its Hand in Asia
Published: 2017-02-08
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QvcTZt4DVI
Title: The Four-War Problem: The Trump Administration Tips Its Hand in Asia
Published: 2017-02-08
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QvcTZt4DVI
1/37
hi I am Peter Lee and this is news buds China watch this week the trump administration tips its hand in Asia enough to interest and stacked in Asia to light off several world wars pretty much all of the scenarios involve China this week in the wake of secretary of defense James Madison inaugural trip to Asia we're going to look at for South China Sea East China2/37
Sea North Korea and Iran and see where the truck administration might be courting the gasoline first the easy one the South China Sea much was made in the lives here about some remarks that Steve Bennett trucks racially is Rasputin or his Wormtongue depending on which analogy you prefer made in twenty sixteen that we would be at war with China in five to ten years no doubt3/37
because of China's island building aggrandizement in the South China Sea never say never but I think we can put the South China Sea war to rest for now when Ben and made those remarks the pivot was in full flower the navy was itching to hype the China threat and a strongly pro U. S. administration was in power in the Philippines and ready to advance the anti4/37
China strategies formulated in Washington since then of course Rodrigo to territory was elected in the Philippines and shifted Philippines foreign policy away from United front confrontation to buy Lotto rap groups moment with the people's Republic of China without an aggrieved treaty ally begging the U. S. for help to resist Chinese aggression the US doesn't have much standing to confront China in the South China Sea unless5/37
the P. R. C. does something absolutely stupid like fortifying its artificial islands with offensive weapons and threatening freedom of navigation which I don't think it's going to do right now instead the PRC is now showering goodies when the Philippines and Vietnam and the Philippines and Vietnam or cool bring up those goodies and I expect making it clear to the trump administration but they aren't looking forward6/37
to the U. S. upsetting the South China Sea apple cart with a war right now don't have to guess what the Philippines defense minister said he didn't think the US China war over the South China Sea was in the cards and secretary of defense madness used the occasion of the swing to Asia to announce that quote there is no need right now at this time for7/37
military maneuvers or something like that that would solve something that's best solved by the diplomats so it looks like the much ado over rex two listens comments over denying access to the South China Sea islands was as I wrote a couple weeks ago Much Ado About Nothing in fact to listen just walked his statement back so let's put war of the South China Sea on the8/37
back burner for now at least until the U. S. manages to engineer the overthrow of Rodrigo to territory that will take at least a year according to the time table the US government is allegedly working off how about war over the East China Sea separately over the disputed Senkaku islands secretary matters affirmed that article five of the mutual security treaty between the United States Japan covered9/37
the Senkaku whose the Chinese insist on calling the galleries affirmation has to be done periodically because the United States has never confirmed Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku islands when Nixon returned Okinawa and all that to Japan in nineteen seventy one he set aside the issue of Senkaku sovereignty to be worked out between Taiwan the PRC and Japan which didn't happen Japan took over administration of the10/37
uninhabited islands unilaterally declared they were part of Japan build stuff on them and now patrols the territorial waters since then the United States has declared several times that the islands are covered by the mutual security treaty in other words if China tries to change the status quo I take the islands by force the U. S. may use military force to assist Japan so how does this11/37
statement was relatively routine and not a huge surprise the Chinese complained about it but probably wouldn't do much about it the independence minded DPP government on Taiwan like further aggravate the situation by renouncing the Republic of China's claims to the islands in favor of Japan but the consequences would probably be felt in Taiwan P. R. C. relations not in war with Japan and the United States12/37
so more in the East China Sea doesn't look to be in America's inbox how about North Korea important objective of Dallas is mission to Asia was a joint announcement with South Korea that the terminal high altitude area defense system or tad would be installed in South Korea this year the debate over tad is part of the five way geo political contest between North Korea South Korea13/37
Japan China and the United States I have a piece up at the newsletter website that goes into the details let's focus here on the official justification for the tax system north Korea's rogue WMD program Madison asked that the United States would flatten North Korea if it used nuclear weapons no huge surprise here the important part in the reporting at least was about what to do in14/37
the creek flattening stage Reuters wrote quote former US officials and other experts who said the United States essentially has two options when it comes to try to curb north Korea's fast expanding nuclear and missile programs negotiate or take military action what's missing from that short list of options denuclearization via sanctions you know the Obama strategic patience thing that Hillary Clinton had promised to continue I know15/37
in the age of never trump we're not allowed to use the word failure with respect to the Obama administration but Obama North Korea policy was a big fat failure now everybody's quietly praying to trump will as I said in my January eighth chai don't watch episode eat the burger that is to say negotiate with King Kong in this is one issue where trump could have the16/37
Washington establishment at his back instead of on his back at least long enough to get Obama in the bill we think tank genius is off the hook don't be an idiot to army eat a burger and don't be an idiot Joan you don't test that I CBM toward the United States with this background I'm calling odds on a civilization ending war over North Korea two to17/37
one against fingers crossed big bad one when it comes to a breakdown of diplomacy and a chance for war is I believe Iraq and China is a more important factor in the Iran equation the many recognize the Iran nuclear deal is headed for trouble it should be understood the first principle of Donald trump's deal making is don't accept or endorse other people's deals especially if they18/37
were made by Obama supposedly the worst deal maker on the planet this aspect of diplomacy Allah trump was in full display in the contentious phone call with Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull much was made of how mean trunk was to a loyal ally how loyal Australia has pitched in on pretty much every modern war the U. S. is fought including Vietnam the trunk of course doormat is19/37
for wiping his shoes on not respecting but more importantly he was fleeing Turnbull for some deal on refugees but Obama had made to help turn go out of the nasty political problem trump on principle at to despise it intro planned the ultimate bad deal by bad negotiator Obama is of course the Iran nuclear deal it actually is a rather vulnerable deal a piece of incrementalism like20/37
obamacare based on the idea that after Obama was out of office is successors would accepted it affected well the problem with the Iran deal is it's only rock solid U. S. partisans are good hearted optimists beltway Obama nieces now the abominations are outside the White House Ted while Iran hawks starting with the foundation for defense of democracies mark do it all the way up to national21/37
security adviser Michael Flynn are inside the tent as for international support for the Iran deal the EU's been keen to do business with Iran for decades was a key stakeholder in the negotiations but that's about it for enthusiastic international cheerleaders for the Iran agreement and we know how much clout the E. U. carries with Donald Trump on the other hand Saudi Arabia and Israel heat to22/37
deal with a passion because they want Iran to remain a pariah state and not part of any U. S. security diplomatic or economic equation at their expense and they weaponized their opposition in the U. S. domestic sphere it looks to me by using the MEK a notoriously flaky Iranian immigrant resistance group as a front the any case U. S. sympathizers recently delivered a letter to trump23/37
calling for him to renegotiate the Iran deal the list of signatories is an indication of the financial and diplomatic muscle apparently behind the initiative is revealing it looks like trump would overtly tear up the Iran deal instead he can sanction it into oblivion it's part of this increasingly aggressive campaign to weaken Iran and undermine its regional reach for instance to get the deal signed Obama left24/37
enough wiggle room for Iran to do missile tests and enough wiggle room for the United States to object to missile tests trumpeted announcing a new round of sanctions on February third in response to an Iranian missile test what's China got to do with it as US news and World Report put it there is no hidden message for China trump's Iran sanctions not so hidden part is25/37
that a bunch of Chinese individuals and companies were sanctioned basically serving as cut outs so around to buy stuff through China that was prohibited by US sanctions it kinda hidden part is that Iran policy is really a covert economic war between the United States China Iranian oil accounts for about ten percent of China's oil imports keeping that oil flowing sanctions or no is important to China's26/37
energy security it's even more important for Iran each counts China not only as its biggest customer but also it's friendliest about twenty percent of Iran's oil exports end up in China China's purchases give Iran a vital economic lifeline and assisted with standing U. S. let sanctions China is also happy to exploit sanctions by back filling a term of art for scooping up business opportunities in Iran27/37
that US and EU corporations are denied because of sanctions China continually pushes the envelope undercutting US sanctions on Iraq the United States is continually working to make that envelope smaller and tighter there's even a nuclear option available to the United States clearly cutting off Chinese financial institutions from the U. S. in other words the world's financial system for violating sanctions the US treasury department has been28/37
perfecting that weapon for ten years China has been working on counter measures for just as long internationalization of the Chinese currency the UN should be seen as part of a P. R. C. strategy to construct parallel international financial system centered on the year and in case the United States tries to cripple China's economy by denying it dollar denominated transactions so the trump sanctions were message to29/37
China as well as era that it's game on worst case scenario trump is determined to bring Iran to its knees and in the process launches a major sanctions war against China that escalates to the financial nuclear option and who knows maybe the nuclear nuclear option better case scenario truck will be satisfied with crippling the Obama deal in keeping Iran in limbo while wrapping China on the30/37
snout with sanctions to keep it from feasting too deeply at the Iraq trough the wild card here is whether trump gives his national security adviser Michael Flynn free reign to execute his hyper aggressive anti radical Islam strategy Flynn's worldview reportedly regards pretty much everybody including Iran and China as co conspirators in the scheme to destroy the Judeo Christian west if he's really running the show maybe31/37
it's time to invest in guns lead suits and canned goods I'm hoping that trump and the entire an alliance will settle for a prolonged frozen to somewhat Miltie crisis some nasty proxy wars but I'm hard pressed to put an optimistic number on those lots finally a note on trump's immigration ban fiasco trump's immigration order looks like a cynical piece of public relations designed to fulfill a32/37
campaign promise to its base I temporarily messing with the visas and the lives a few thousand vulnerable Muslim foreigners thereby distracting from the fact that his cabinet is now an orgy room wall papered with dollar bills stopped with Goldman Sachs executives maybe trump felt that wouldn't be too much average quite frankly there are a huge number of immigrants coming in from the seven countries you designate33/37
maybe sixty thousand per year they're mostly from Iran and Iraq and admitted under family preference they presumably would have ended up coming in anyway after the famous extreme thing no big deal right tough times for lady liberty at least in cartoon let an alternate universe lady liberty also figures in the most extensive excluding by country of origin band in American history Chinese exclusion act part of34/37
most Chinese immigration to the United States from eighteen eighty two to nineteen forty three anti Chinese bigotry generated this legendary image the statue of liberty here lady liberty is transplanted to San Francisco Bay port of entry for most Chinese transformed into a Chinese coolie clutching an opium pipe ahead when a human skull the pedestal swarming with rats and is halo promising to bring to America along35/37
with the Chinese filth immorality disease and ruin white labor I write about this image and trump's place in the long history of American anti immigrant agitation hate is as American as apple pie that's all for this week thanks for watching you're watching this on you to go to news but dot com where you'll find exclusive content available only to lose but community I'm Peterlee new spots36/37
China watch WNED for just a small subscription fee you can become a member of the news but community and help keep this website running your subscription will provide you with full community access to exclusive content Clooney videos and articles from news but it's team of experts as well as eight members only monthly newsletter for news was founders and sign up today for full access use but