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TEDx Talks
Published: 2017-08-25
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ne5D-UnS4E
I like editing as a as a topic that this that's kind of my my work in my hobby but I think the way we use energy to wipe you said he needs to change who agrees with that far as I can after finishing jobs done so that's easy but we're really in a pressure cooker to do deaths the race little time it's a big job and
many people will think oh dear we may have to do that let us all kind of recent have to do but it's going to be costly is going to be difficult that we may not be as wealthy or we don't even have all these great energy services in the future well let's let's take a look at out the graphic alone show I'm not going to be
friendly on you with with with with the graphics for the graphic behind me is score output off the intergovernmental panel on climate change deaths comes from these thick reports of thousands of pages with thousands of scientists involved summarizing these hundreds and hundreds of papers on energy systems and climate change effects of climate change and it's the bow to most complex summaries %HESITATION Darius of these reports
because on the left hand side you see emissions scenarios that go up with Dick it tolls of carbon that's we admit per year using coal oil and gas etcetera and the great part is B. scissors usual of leaf being correct in doing business as usual for decades ready early nineties we concluded there something wrong with this and the climate is effective and so ever since we
have been doing business as usual more economic growth more people Morkel more oiled more gas more CO two emissions and with the best knowledge debts we we have today let's see if that works those emissions will corresponds during the century two deaths temperature affects all our global clients a possible chip CruDiv should know that it's a possible change maybe that's why it yeah a possible change
of the global mean temperature between maybe for but it could be eight the Greeks it could be a degrees efforts estimate maybe six and this little scientific debates about what that means that she had a saucer that it's meters of sea level rise that this massive damage to biodiversity that is massive loss of food production capacity mass migration all the misery sure no because you're well
educated audience so it's good reasons why we agreed also Paris to settle old to maybe one and a half degrees so we will not stop climate change that will be climate change but we can kind of try to keep it troll that's good and that's in the meantime corresponds bev that corresponds to the green area right over there to see mission falsely that we have to
get to meet that target and it's not only a dramatic shifts in the trends it's just the reverse dubious as usual but is even if you take a close look an area in that queen bands that's below zero negative emissions so today given the emissions we have ready creative and what we need to do to meet one and a half two degree target we need options
to remove CO two from the atmosphere for example flaunting more forced and maybe converting the bios implants that capture CO two store it on the ground again negative emissions that was a soulless conclusion of the IPC work it's that desperate and we have only a number of decades to do the job that he's not good news if what you're going to have a fun evening life
well that is good news I release hit the button this good news this bus this was remarkable we had a premise agreements the whole world the Greeks the problem is real you try to stop it several one off degree in every country needs to come with plants to reduce those emissions over time and many respondents you can have gritted his all that things that all freaks
of it no no it's not all fix but it's also an amazing achievement that he had that agreement and it basically said the problem is that we can all the night well that are so mean yellow and white have politicians that's then to deny it to make a break through those guys but you can say the world agrees to accept the good news so you can
be a little bit happier I got so not a graphic with maybe that that the figure can we do that's yes and this is one of hundreds of graphics that all look a little bit the same the same message that could do the job but you see here on the I. excesses exit Jules spend two to eighteen jewels and that's the amount of energy that we
use today today's about five of the fifty of those exigibles again the sum of coal oil gas that's the book but eighty eighty five percent some hydro some nuclear little bit of renewables the green parts by limited and if we let that go uncontrolled vicious usual it make quadruple in this century quad triple a you may have seen that I am old area you may seem
to brown coal mines in Germany or we know that gas fields here in a sloth and all the infrastructure will fight thanks for right this huge step foot print of death the investment of the capital the it's it's incredible to meet death energy demand alone can we don't keep death within our coverage is even with negative emissions well this picture displaced that is first of all
much of everything we know we have to combine and the gray areas really bit misleading energy efficiency that some very simple in a descriptive it's way too simple but it means controlling growth and she used by new factories we need new industries that are twice that's sufficient us today usual and he got to see it too it means strong support that does the same job was
today with one third of the energy you use for displacing a thong or purse it means building varmint this energy neutral produces a just as much energy as it uses that's the energy efficiency option so it means a completely different infrastructure or design of cities different industrial areas circling economy said that's one of the witches and that her solo artist wins there's still some fossil fuels
in the middle that he may be able to use another with copper Bridget's if we capture this year to get this released when using it so that's an option we need to nuclear that's not really emphasize other scenario show death others bio based economy so growing crops and stayed away converting to fuels to feed stocks and maybe also with CCS again it's a massive job but
is this imaginable that we do death now this farce kind of a friendly for many people especially for those yellow and white have politicians because then you have to explain giggles of carbon and god will be temperature change and extra Jules was difficult what is one language that many of these white to yellow had politicians understand that's monies this graphic it's free fool is about money
and that translates the required changes in our global energy system all the infrastructure coal plants the solar and and to the current cost to a new generation of cars etcetera two financial impact and that's very meaningful because the scale that you see here only I access yes hundreds with billions of dollars per year for part of the energy sector for decades hundreds of billions of dollars
per year going into new electricity systems renewable energy carbon capture and storage infrastructure maybe a new generation of nuclear and for sure also on the right hand side energy efficiency measures it can mean which can mean a lot of things are so ready briefly mentioned everything up to this above the X. axis so you're talking about trillions of dollars on unknown unknown if your business it's
above the X. axis so to say you're in business that's jobs that's new products that's new services so that's fantastic and that's good news does have major opportunity in that part in regions that develop those industries and infrastructures and a leading death but we don't make sexist there's something going down of course because we will need less coal less gas less oil less refined Reese and
those are the guys on the losing end that's also the vested interest that's also where the yellow and white hat politicians are sometimes so we have the major economic shift here as a major opportunity but there's also something we really need to govern and at this where do we lose jobs and investment and by what also in the system and it all up plus minus that
is definitely a beneficial effects for economic development new industries etcetera so that's an outcome of this type of work and it leads to do some we have for that's the gift that keeps institutions in the field have repeated this all over and over again and I really call it the biggest no brainer in the energy field because he after we don't need to do is going
to be massive it's going to be because a lot of money schools feel welcome back to death so this through but this key point if we do death with a vengeance and we put pressure all these new options like solar and wind to new cars and fuel cells and let's lighting etcetera they will get cheaper and I will come back to get off the death so
this one effectively do death yet effective Scorsese's classic economics use less and less well I guess the goal of a ticket will get cheaper to some people say that's bad news because then your new options don't compete as much but if you do that altogether it means on the medium to long term that's enough from cost but the total energy supply in the future will be
cheaper than doing nothing I call it the biggest no brighter and energy field because discs economically perfectly sensible to do but it doesn't come for free and it's still part of the group to shell because the curfew see here council of details don't focus on the details Nichols learning curves and they show historically out across the full these key technologies the V. with power fuel cells
LED lighting also many other examples have gone down because of their increased development decrease deployment and this seems to be rules of steel there which is really remarkable every doubling of the markets every doubling of production of the signal just generally leads to a twenty twenty five or thirty percent cost reduction so you produce more and the costs go down so that is something we observed
in Boston beefy cells a fantastic because today we can build solar parks in Chile in the Middle East in Australia to deliver to steal ready below three cents euro cents per kilowatt hour Woelfel so course maybe five or six since we've seen the same already wind energy early today on the North Sea the first park is now plants that will be built without subsidy prosperity has
been the chief so this is a massive achievement if those learning goes go down and are all over the place not only for his renewable energy technologies but also for future use and he delights ready mentions for guess divines new industrial processes etcetera so they are there and it's fantastic but it doesn't come for free because if you go into these cases what made those costs
go down and that's a lot of things combine to defer spur option we need more and sometimes if the Gobi Curtis economy of scale but for sure that he's a lot of research and development absolutists the scientific arena inventions new materials better designs that is a part of debts engine that drives these costs down is also clever business is how do you planned as are you
quicker and quicker in installing that better services so death entire process of that much ballooning sixty very complex it's an innovation system that has to work together and Betty into debt to more rep it's the costs go down and this is so wording round wind energy that has been a big success for example by Denmark etcetera and %HESITATION ended and we can see the real results
now in the North Sea today but we need us in many more options so this is what we're really looking at to make that entire energy transition affordable to profitable because we're always talking about yet we need new stuff I I hardly dare to touch that button and will before yeah so we need new stuff and that's more expensive than full reference so that's kind of
fear of Kuwait to look at it of course is a fifty fifty fifty line usually in reality at a cost will go down it's going to keep invest in it but it will cost more cities maybe Texas subsidies or whatever helps but this point is what you want break even point conspiracy in the voucher dare you to business because then you have to cheaper alternative what
we see today so the plants in the right positions already so that's what we want but it's not easy because we have many of the technologies we still need to buy or to find the B. CCS systems etcetera farm stuff new factories with energy efficient technologies that need to go over these mountain of deaf it's almost cool for many of these technologies get stuck wrapping up
so was also write a full but a little bit different here so usually first course rice and then they can go down the timeline here is usually decades so this doesn't come for free so the big message of the targets that is no silver bullet no magic solution that will solve the problem of climate change and change the energy system because it's many things that have
to work together and all these things also need development and investment so freshens in energy saying moon maybe I don't like nuclear energy or maybe I don't like bio fuels which is not a thing or don't like all the captions storage I'm not twice it is about consistent work to develop these options and bring them to market so freshens and rice and full of auctions that
